For all that Trout has done, the Angels can't retire Guerrero's jersey

The Los Angeles Angels have a dilemma to handle, at least that's the opinion of some people, in my eyes, there's a clear right answer.

The former Angel Vladimir Guerrero got elected into Cooperstown this year and shortly thereafter announced he'll enter the Hall of Fame with an Angels cap, which isn't shocking, but it's a bit intriguing, as he began his career in Montreal, played more games there (1004 to 846) and overall had slightly better numbers with the Expos, but usually these things go deeper than just stats, there's emotional attachment involved, team success, a bunch of things, and he did win his only MVP award with the Angels, but that's not what I want to focus on.

Every team has its own philosophy when it comes to retiring numbers, some are more strict, others not so much, but for the most part, when a Hall of Fame player, spent a significant time with your team, his number is retired, and here's where the problem lies.

Guerrero wore the number 27, you probably know that number now belongs to the greatest baseball player in the world Mike Trout, with that in mind the Angels cannot retire the number, for the following reasons.

1: I know even if they do retire the number, Trout can still wear it, and eventually have his jersey retired, which inevitably will happen, giving the Angels two retired jerseys with the same number.

That doesn't make any sense, it becomes meaningless, it's just not the same and for those of you comparing it to the Mariano Rivera/Jackie Robinson situation, that's completely different, for once Jackie never played for the Yankees, the retirement happened decades after he finished his career.

Robinson's number wasn't retired throughout baseball because he was the GOAT, significantly better than anyone ever, it was to pay respect and homage to all the things he did that transcended the game, a small way to give back just a little of what we all owe him.

In Guerrero's case, you don't retire his number, because there's an even better player in your team wearing it, the best in your franchise's history, in Rivera's situation, what were you going to do, not retire 42 for the Yankees, because they already had a guy wearing the number, it's irrelevant, as the jersey retirement extended so far beyond just the game.



2, In an interview for MLB Network last week, Trout said about the subject: "I'm real superstitious" "Everybody knows that."

This has nothing to do with superstition, it's about him wanting and deserving the number.

Now even if he had come out and said, I really don't care, do whatever you want, my stance would be the same, for one retiring the jersey doesn't prohibit him of wearing it, and two, here's a guy who has been the best in baseball, outside of one year is always surrounded by bad teams, he signed an extension to stay an Angel, never says a word, never asked for a trade, that counts for something.

He deserves the opportunity to see the number 27 retired when he finishes his career, not play it with a retired number.

Let's not lose sight here people, Vlad Guerrero was great, but he played 6 seasons with the Angels, not exactly Derek Jeter, Trout also played about 6 seasons a little more, but he is just getting started and for the foreseeable future he is not going anywhere.

Consider this, in his whole career, Guerrero's WAR was 54.3, Trout, right now is at 54.4. (FG WAR).


Guerrero with the Angels:

.387 wOBA     138 wRC+     176.1 wRAA
544 Runs     .226 ISO     .927 OPS
846 Games


Trout's career:

.412 wOBA     169 wRC+     318.4 wRAA
692 Runs     .260 ISO     .976 OPS
925 Games



You can't argue against it, and looking at it from a different angle, if you are Guerrero, you are in Cooperstown, do you really want to either have your number retired and take it away from Trout, or have it retired, only to have the number 27 forever recognized as the jersey that Trout wore, with a footnote, saying, oh Vlad Guerrero also wore that number.

This is not a huge deal, he is not being penalized, his jersey for the Angels doesn't get retired, for a more than valid reason, it's fine.

Having the best player your team has ever had, wearing a retired jersey for a guy whose career on your ball club isn't quite in the same level as him, now that's just wrong.

As always feel free to comment, suggest, subscribe and anything else you can think of, any questions you may have, I'm here to answer them.

Top 10 by position. Part 2

MLB Network has published their latest edition of Top 10 players by position, addressing the top 10 Catchers and top 10 Left Fielders.

As promised I'll do mine, now while doing these top 10 lists, my goal is to rank right now all things being equal, salary, age, durability, who are the 10 best players in that position, it's not about surplus value.

Like an example, Bryce Harper and Clayton Kershaw are clearly the best players at their position, but due to their contractual situation, both are not even close to the top, when it comes to surplus value.

If you were to ask a GM right now, under their current deals, who would they take Yelich or Harper, they'd all say Yelich, but ask, for 1 year at the same salary, who would they take, Harper unquestionably.

Just wanted to make that clear, and also how they performed in the past season, is a factor, but it's not all, you have to look at the overall body of work.

With that being said, let's begin.


Top 10 Catchers by MLB Network.

1, Buster Posey
2, Gary Sanchez
3, Willson Contreras
4, Yasmani Grandal
5, J.T. Realmuto
6. Austin Barnes
7, Mike Zunino
8, Yadier Molina
9, Tyler Flowers
10, Robinson Chirinos

My Top 10 Catchers

1, Buster Posey
2, Gary Sanchez
3, JT Realmuto
4, Wilson Contreras
5, Yasmany Grandal
6, Austin Barnes
7, Mike Zunino
8, Russel Martin
9, Salvador Perez
10, Yadier Molina

Tier 1: Buster Posey

Tier 2: Gary Sanchez, JT Realmuto, Wilson Contreras, Yasmany Grandal, and Austin Barnes.

Tier 3: Mike Zunino, Russel Martin, Salvador Perez and Yadier Molina.

As much as the last 3, Martin, Perez and Molina have declined, they still produce good value and deserved these last 3 spots.






Top 10 Left Fielders by MLB Network

1. Marcell Ozuna
2. Yoenis Cespedes
3. Justin Upton
4. Ryan Braun
5. Trey Mancini
6. Khris Davis
7. Adam Eaton
8. Andrew Benintendi
9. Marwin Gonzalez
10. Brett Gardner

My top 10 Left Fielders:

1, Christian Yelich
2, Marcell Ozuna
3, Adam Eaton
4, Rhys Hoskins
5, Andrew Benintendi
6, Yoenis Cespedes
7, Justin Upton
8, Brett Gardner
9, Nomar Mazara
10, Joc Pederson

I decided not to do any tiers, just because the more i attempt to do it, any tier i come up with, seems like in some way a stretch and I'm sure that there are multiple rankings that could be rearranged, it's all very close.

First off, I put Yelich in the LF list, because he is a left fielder, played there a ton, and moved to center, due to the Marlins two great corner OF, Ozuna and Stanton, and their inability to play center, and Yelich will move back to left, with Milwaukee.

Hoskins is on the list, because he will play left field, and I've seen him play, there so it's not a major question mark, whether he can or not.

No one knows exactly how much playing time Gardner is going to get in left, but he will get some and that's his natural position.

I did not include Conforto nor Pham as both will clearly play other positions in 2018.

PS: I know, Eaton and Hoskins at 3rd and 4th, it's bold, but looking at what i expect, based on objective analysis from what they have produced, that's where i feel they should be.

The last 2 spots i had a tough time with, lots of players close to each other, ultimately i went with those two as they provide a similar floor to what the other candidates do and give a higher ceiling.

I'm officially on the Hoskins bandwagon, solely based on facts, i believe he will be a great player.

Regarding Eaton, if you look at his last 2 years in Chicago, the production is there and with his plus defense in left, there's a ton of value

As always feel free to comment, suggest, subscribe and anything else you can think of, any questions you may have, i'm here to answer them.

Cy Young voters have moved past a pitcher's win-loss record. Or have they? Part 2

Continuing the rundown of Cy Young winners in this decade and how their win-loss record was a factor in them getting the award.


2015 Cy Young Award Winners.
AL: Dallas Kuechel
NL: Jake Arrieta

Another interesting case where both winners weren't necessarily the best pitchers and benefited greatly from the 20 win plateau.

First, let's go through the AL, Dallas Kuechel won the award, his only competitor was David Price, and truth be told, there's no big gap here, but looking at the numbers, Price led the AL in:

ERA-, ERA, FG WAR

2nd in FIP to Chris Sale.

All things considered, Kuechel was pretty close and Price's xFIP at 3.24 shows he got pretty lucky with his home run to flyball percentage, Kuechel's number was 2.75, and Kuechel had better run expectancy numbers.

Addressing the topic of the article, it is very clear that a big factor was the 20 win plateau, Keuchel had a 20-8 record, Price finished at 18-5, I'd bet anything that had Price won the 20 games, and Keuchel only 18, Price wins the award.

Looking at it objectively, a case for Keuchel is just as strong and I'd probably lean slightly towards him, but there is such a thing as bad process, good result, and the reason why he won it and the reason why he should have won it, are different.

Over in the NL side, it was a phenomenal race, Kershaw, Greinke, and Arrieta put on a show and all 3 pitched around the same number of innings, so no big difference there.

The intriguing fact is this, Kershaw had the best peripherals:

Led in K%, K-BB%, FIP-, xFIP-, FIP, xFIP, FG WAR, SIERA, SwStr%.

All of these categories, he was number 1.

And you can say, well Arrieta had the edge in the run prevention,

1.77 ERA to Kershaw's 2.13

9.4 RA9-WAR to 7.9

8.7 BR WAR to 7.5

But Zack Greinke was better than Arrieta in all of those categories, he had a 1.66 ERA, 10.0 RA9-WAR, and 9.3 BR WAR.

The stat that probably gave Arrieta the award:

He went 22-6.

Greinke fell one win short at 19-3, Kershaw had a 16-7 record. Objective analysis shows you that the winner should've been either Kershaw or Greinke, Kershaw was historically great on the peripherals, Greinke on the run prevention, Arrieta somewhere in the middle.

Had one of them won 20 games instead of Arrieta they take the award handily


2016 Cy Young Award Winners.
AL: Rick Porcello
NL: Max Scherzer

Starting with the AL, can someone tell me how one pitcher receives 8 1rst place votes and another one receives 14 1rst place votes and the first one gets the award due to the total vote points, it makes no sense.

Moving over to the award, it was close, the field actually was very weak, but across the board, Verlander and Kluber were slightly better in every aspect, honestly, Zach Britton was so unreal you can make the argument for him an 804 ERA+ is insane, so he deserved some consideration.

Addressing the topic at hand again, Verlander should've won it and had him or Kluber finished off with Porcello's record of 22-4, they win it, without a doubt.

In the National League, it's clear Kershaw would've won it, had he been healthy, Fernandez and Syndergaard had better numbers, not by much, but better, their problem is lack of innings, 182.1 and 183.2, but if you are going to vote for them, you're better off voting for Kershaw, just on how dominant he was, a 237 ERA+ for a starter is unheard of.

Kershaw had virtually the same RA9-WAR as Scherzer 6.8 to 6.9, on 79.1 fewer innings, it's unbelievable if he pitches 70 mediocre innings instead of missing them, he undoubtedly wins the award, and while Scherzer probably won despite the 20 wins, it helped put him over the top.


2017 Cy Young Award Winners
AL: Corey Kluber
NL: Max.Scherzer

Not much to talk about here.

Corey won it and deserved it, neither he nor Sale won 20 games so it wasn't a factor.

In the NL, while Scherzer was better, it's an example of how it's about the 20 wins, Kershaw missed time, but he pitched 175 Innings and Scherzer only had 200.2 as he also had injury issues, the Dodger hurler had an 18-4 record and Scherzer 16-6, I'm sure had Kershaw won 2 more games and finished at 20, he wins the award.


Summing it all up, in the last 3 years, there were 3 winners that won the award based on the 20 win nonsense, they were good, but there were more deserving candidates.


As always feel free to comment, suggest and subscribe.


Your support on Patreon would be greatly appreciated, the more help, the easier it is to expand, more time writing and doing research and throw in a couple of exclusive articles per week for the first supporters, the link is in the sidebar if you are interested.

Cy Young voters have moved past a pitcher's win-loss record. Or have they?

Perception is everything, but more often than not, it's deceiving and it leads people into making blank statements without properly analyzing the facts, the subject I'm about to address, really represents that well.

We are in 2018, and the consensus around the MLB community is that we've moved past the point of using a pitcher's win as an accurate measurement of their performance. While for the most part that is true, when you look at the data, it becomes clear that part of that is perception.

I decided to go back to the beginning of the decade (2010-18), at all the Cy Young winners for both leagues since, and analyze if the most deserving pitcher actually won it and if he didn't, did their win-loss record have anything to do with it.

Obviously looking back at the winners of the 20th century would not be fair, as it wasn't until the early 2000's with the Moneyball revolution and all of the sabermetricians that this really took off and people started acknowledging it.

So let's begin.

2010 Cy Young Award Winners.

AL: Felix Hernandez
NL: Roy Halladay

Nothing major here, analyzing that year, in the AL, Cliff Lee, Justin Verlander and "The King" were all very close, but Hernandez probably the better candidate, significantly more innings, the better ERA, ERA-, xFIP, and neither won 20 games, Hernandez and Lee at 12, Verlander at 18.

Over to the National League, Roy Halladay won the award getting every single first-place vote, and it's understandable.

He had a 21-10 record, 2.44 ERA, 250.2 IP, highest FG WAR among NL pitchers at 6.1, highest BR WAR overall at 8.6

Josh Johnson and Ubaldo Jimenez had very good seasons, but ultimately fell short, Johnson pitched almost 70 fewer innings, Jimenez close to 30 fewer innings.




2011 Cy Young Award Winners:
AL: Justin Verlander
NL: Clayton Kershaw

In this particular season both pitchers won the Triple Crown, and while Verlander was clearly the deserving pitcher in the AL, on the other league things were interesting, or at least should've been.

In the NL, Kershaw was awesome but Halladay was just as awesome, and the Triple Crown gave number 22 the edge, a big part of it, is the wins.

Analyze their seasons.

ERA:
Kershaw: 2.28.    Halladay: 2.35

K-BB%:
Kershaw: 21.3.    Halladay: 19.8

FIP:
Kershaw: 2.47.    Halladay: 2.20

WPA/LI (Wins Probability Added/Leverage Index)
Kershaw: 4.21.    Halladay: 3.82

FG and BR WAR respectively:
Kershaw: 7.1 and 8.9     Halladay: 8.3 and 8.6

Overall very close, and had Halladay finished with 21 wins and Kershaw with 19, no Triple Crown and i'm pretty sure Halladay wins it, just based on the 20+ wins, if voted by a complete sabermetric community, it'd be very close, my guess Halladay wins it by a vote or so, with this we found our first wins related winner, but honestly it's a coin flip.



2012 Cy Young Award Winners:
AL: David Price
NL: R.A. Dickey

This year is very interesting as neither winner was the deserving one and it's clear both won solely on the 20 win nonsense.

First let's go through the AL, where Price edged out Verlander by one vote, 14 to 13.

Look at the numbers, Justin Verlander led him in:

IP: 238.1 to 211.0

K-BB%: 18.7 to 17.5

AVG: .215 to .224

FIP: 2.94 to 3.05

BR WAR: 7.8 to 6.9

FG WAR: 6.8 to 5.0

In all fairness, Price had a slightly better ERA, 2.56 to 2.64, but that's a very slim difference, 0.08 run per 9 Inning, how much does that matter.

The reason why Price won it, was that he had a 20-5 record and Verlander a 17-8, if it's the other way around, Verlander wins it, unquestionably.

Moving on the NL, it's the same story, Dickey won the award, because he had 20 wins, even while Kershaw led the NL in

Both WAR versions, FG and BR

ERA, ERA-, WPA/LI,  RE24 (Run Expectancy)

RA9-WAR

2nd in FIP and AVG to Gio Gonzalez

And Dickey got 27 first-place votes.

Unlike the 2011 situation in the Nl, that's very debatable, in 2012, the pitchers that should've won were Kershaw and Verlander.



2013 Cy Young Award Winner:
AL: Max Scherzer
NL: Clayton Kershaw

Part of the reason why Scherzer won was the 21 wins, but it's acceptable, in part because the other 2 who had a case were Anibal Sanchez and Hisashi Iwakuma, with Iwakuma i don't even consider, yes he was better at run prevention, but he got pretty lucky, 3.44 FIP, hence only a 3.9 FG's WAR.

Now with Sanchez, you can make a case but he only pitched 182 Innings, and his ERA and FIP were only slightly better, and his K-BB% was worse, to overtake someone with much more IP, you have to be significantly better across the board.

In the NL, Kershaw was the only candidate, should've won it, and did, nothing to say.


2014 Cy Young Award Winner:
AL: Corey Kluber
NL: Clayton Kershaw

In the AL very close two-horse race, between Kluber and Hernandez, it could've gone either way, neither pitcher reached that 20 win number so i can't point to that, but overall Kluber was slightly better and deserved the award.

In the NL one of the all-time great seasons by Kershaw, won the MVP, nothing to say.


I'll continue this tomorrow with part 2, analyzing the Cy Young's from 15-17 and seeing where the wins affected the votes.

Rick Porcello anyone.

Looking at the winners from 10-14 we found 2 awards that the winner won almost solely on the fact he reached that 20 win plateau unlike the pitchers that should've won in such seasons, both in 2012, coincidentally, and another season when in 2011 over in the NL, Halladay, and Kershaw had magnificent years and the tie breaker was the win total, Kershaw 21, Halladay 19, giving Kershaw the Triple Crown and ultimately the award, either one could have won it and had their record gone the other way around, Halladay very likely wins it.

While you go to bed tonight, consider this, despite everything that the sabermetric's community has accomplished in this last decade or so, 3 Cy Young winners during a 5 year span from 2010-14, were determined by a pitcher's win-loss record, more accurately the fact that they all reached 20 wins, and more so have happened since, in the 15-17 period, ones that i'll address tomorrow.

As always feel free to comment, suggest and subscribe.

Your support on Patreon would be greatly appreciated, the more help, the easier it is to expand, more time writing and doing research and throw in a couple of exclusive articles per week for the first supporters, the link is in the sidebar if you are interested.

The HOF case of Andruw Jones

it's January 23, and with zero moves to discuss, except for the Austin Jackson signing, let's talk about the HOF case of Andruw Jones, first off, I'm not here to measure him against another hall of famer, as the voters don't know what they are doing and I can't say you are wrong for not including him, because you included this guy, when I don't agree with your criteria or lack there of , I'm here to state that this guy is either a HOF or not, simple as that.

Andruw Jones is a fascinating case, consider this, he is four months older than Tom Brady. As a 19-year-old he got called up to the majors and played in the World Series as a teenager. Becoming an impactful player at such a young age should be very helpful in his HOF case, as it helps him build more cumulative value than your average star, it should.

But peaking at such a young age only helped make up value, as he was basically done by his age 30 season, in 2007, after that his total value was 2.9 WAR.

Now with all of this in mind is he a Hall of Famer? Let's see.

Based on the defensive metrics, he is the best defensive outfielder ever.

Career Def: 281.3

The next closest outfielder is Willie Mays at 170.1.

It's indisputable, he won 10 Gold Gloves, other guys had that but his metrics are above everyone.

His hitting was above average, but not HOF worthy, which doesn't mean much as you have to look at the overall value.

A comparison for him as a hitter, Curtis Granderson.

Jones:
254/337/486     .231 ISO
10.3 BB%     20.2 K%
.352 wOBA     111 wRC+


Granderson:
252/339/472     .220 ISO
11.0 BB%     22.7 K%
.350 wOBA     117 wRC+


Andruw Jones career SLG percentage of .486 is the same as one Carlos Beltran.

6+ WAR seasons;

Jones: 6 (98-00, 02, 05, 06)
Beltran: 4 (03, 04, 06, 08)

Here is a guy with 64.2 WAR before turning 30, with the 10th highest ISO among CF ever, all-time defense, i cannot sit here and say he is not a Hall of Famer.

432 career HR. That's top 50 ever. 47th to be exact. He wasn't Vlad Guerrero with the bat, but the production is there.

Career wRC+ and wOBA

Andruw Jones: 111, .352

Alan Trammel: 111, .343

Cal Ripken: 112, .346

Think about that.

To sum it all up, top 50 all-time in homers, best defensive OF ever, 10 gold gloves, 64.2 WAR by his age 30 season.

To me, he is a Hall of Famer.

As always feel free to comment, suggest and subscribe to each and every one of you out there, who reads my articles, from the bottom of my heart I appreciate it.

JD Martinez and the evaluation of one-dimensional talent

JD Martinez is the perfect example of two theories I have.

1, How recency bias is real and it clouds people's judgments.

2, The inability of accurately measure a player's value when he's completely one dimensional. Another example of this is Omar Vizquel, great player, tremendous fielder Smith alike, his added value is not HOF worthy. It doesn't matter how you get there, just that you do, Omar didn't.

JD is a great hitter don't get me wrong, by a big margin he is clearly the best batter available in this Free Agent Class, but there are major flaws in his game.

Looking at his career stats is unfair, given how pedestrian he was as an Astro, it took a move to Detroit and some changes in his approach to become the slugger he now is.

So let's go back to 2014, his first year with the Tigers.

300/362/574     .274 ISO

134.0 wRAA     .392 wOBA     148 wRC+     14.6 WAR

Tremendous line, 2nd best SLG% during that stretch. His numbers are great correct, can compete with anyone not named Trout, then why does he rank 36th among position players during that span in WAR.

Because:

-11.4 Base Running

-18.9 Fielding

-23.9 Positional Adjustments.

Hence -42.8 Defense.

Let me give you two comparisons to JD, Todd Frazier, and Edwin Encarnacion, I'm out of my mind right or am i.


Todd Frazier

243/333/464     .221 ISO
46.8 wRAA     .338 wOBA     113 wRC+     14.8 WAR

How can he have basically the same WAR over that stretch on a significantly worst batting line?

Because

2.9 Base Running
13.8 Fielding
3.3 Positional Adjustment

Hence 17.1 Defense


Edwin Encarnacion

266/365/533.    .267 ISO
133.2 wRAA     .381 wOBA.    141 wRC+     14.5 WAR

Very similar batting line with JD, lower average, higher BB%, overall value also gets hurt for the same reason

-12.1 Base Running
-1.9 Fielding
-55.0 Positional Adjustment


Todd is now a free agent, turning 32 in a month and is expected to get a 33/3 contract or something around that.


Edwin was a free agent a year ago as a 34-year-old and saw his market plummet, eventually settling for a 3-year deal worth 60, plus 5 mil buyout on a 4th-year option worth 25.


Although this should be implied I feel obligated to say, it's obvious Frazier is not more valuable than Martinez, JD"s skill set as a hitter if used properly (DH) can be huge.


What i am trying to state here is the following, over the last 4 years, JD has been one of the best hitters in baseball, but because of his poor baserunning and below average glove his value is just not what you'd expect from a player with his hitting capabilities.


Proof of that, his overall value, 14.6 WAR is comparable to players like Todd Frazier and Edwin Encarnacion who got or will get significantly less money on the open market, due to misguided perception.





Looking at his hitting profile, age and the projections, a proper contract for JD is something around 100/5, same yearly average as Edwin a couple of extra years as he is only 30 as a Designated Hitter.


Maybe push it up to 90 but over 4, trying to avoid a fifth year, any talk about Boras wanting 7 years, that's insane any halfway smart GM would refuse to do it.


Think about it, neither can play the field, very good hitters, statistics show they are very similar, taking age out of the equation, why should JD Martinez get a higher yearly average than Edwin Encarnacion, the answer is he really shouldn't, and if he does is due to recency bias.


As always it is my pleasure, feel free to comment, suggest and subscribe. I apologize for the long absence, expect the daily articles to be back.

The Pitsburgh Pirates are in a better spot than you might think

Note: I am very tired right now and it's very late, writing this off my phone, apologize for any mistakes you might find in this article, just wanted to get some content out for you guys.


Contrary to popular belief, even if you do things the right way, it might not work.


In baseball and sports in general, the reason for using correct objective methodology is to get the best chance of achieving the outcome sought, (winning). You could put a 12-year-old in there basing every decision on a coin flip and 1 out of 100 times he could build a championship team, it's all about analyzing the percentages.


What team best describes that?


The Pittsburgh Pirates.


Neal Huntington has done a superb job running this franchise, being handed a lousy ballclub that couldn't reach .500 ball for its life, on a budget that makes Fred Wilpon look like the late Mike Ilitch.


He has built a solid team, that right now it's at a crossroads, retooling for the near future, sending away franchise icon Andrew McCutchen and former number 1 overall pick Gerrit Cole.



Multiple people in the game, especially some scouts have come down hard on Pittsburgh for getting a light return on the Cole trade, mainly because Neal didn't go for the flashy top prospect that the Yankees were offering.


Note: There's a reason why the Yankees have been quick to include Frazier in any trade talks and it's not because they have no room for him, he's a Center fielder and while Hicks is a nice player, the feeling would not be the same if they had Acuna.


That's not to say Frazier will be a bust, but it is a sign they have seen some red flags, mainly his plate discipline, which is awful, as i constantly say power hitters that strike out a lot is fine, power hitters that strike out a lot and can't walk, that's concerning.


Anyway, the Pirates got a package of Joe Musgrove, Colin Moran, Michael Feliz and Jason Martin




Funny thing, after the deal was made, FG's projections had Astros getting 1 win more and the Pirates remained as a .500ish team, why is that, part of it is the fact Joe's projected to have roughly a 3 WAR season 2.7 to be exact, basically replacing Cole's production except for that one great year he had in 2015.



FG Depth Charts/Steamer Projections


Musgrove 157 IP   3.95 ERA.  2.7 WAR

Cole 172 IP.  4.29 ERA.  2.6 WAR


The thing people must realize, they are trading away 2 years of Cole, a 3-4 win pitcher, he has that 6 WAR upside but nobody is gonna pay for it.


Joe is a nice controllable starter with good potential, that can replace Cole at least to some degree.


Colin Moran is a nice prospect, former first-round pick, blocked in Houston, now you get a chance to see what he can produce with 600 AB, it gives Pitt flexibility to play Harrison at 2B, or trade him.


Plus you get 2 fliers in Feliz and Martin.


I'd take that any day over Frazier and a couple of lower level top 20-30 prospects.





The Andrew McCutchen trade, one year of control, almost no chance of resigning him, you get Kyle Crick a nice young arm, give him a chance to start 20-30 games see what he does, plus a toolsy outfielder you're taking a chance on.


The Pirates are a team with a lot of financial flexibility, a very smart GM, promising young pitchers in.


Taillon, Glasnow, Keller, Crick, and Musgrove.


A couple of those guys hit and you're pretty well set.


Plus an elite reliever on a team friendly contract in Felipe Rivero.


On to the hitting side, controllable long-term assets in Marte, Polanco, Bell, Meadows, and others.


Josh Harrison is still there, will probably be moved, but the good news is they have a lot going for them and this retool might only take 1-2 years depending on how some of these prospects develop.


Right now if you asked me who is a better run franchise, Pirates or the Royals, both teams got over the hump and experienced success these last few years, KC got a WS, Pit didn't, it happens.


The Pirates got shutout on a couple of wildcard games at home and that was it, maybe on another night, those games play themselves out differently and who knows.


3 straight postseason appearances where all-time great pitching performances killed their playoff hopes.


Game 4 NLDS, Michael Wacha took a no-hitter into the eighth, Cards won at Pitt, tied series at 2 a piece.


Mad Bum and Jake Arrieta threw shutouts in the wildcard game.


Bad luck what can you say.


A couple of breaks go their way and this is a completely different conversation.


KC got those breaks and now they have a WS ring.


But ask yourself this, results aside what roster outlook would you rather have right now.


Unquestionably, the Pirates.


Let it be known, Neal has done a fine job with this team, under these circumstances and it was granted with some bad losses in the postseason, just gotta keep moving forward.


As always feel free to comment, suggest and subscribe to each and every one of you out there, who reads my articles, from the bottom of my heart I appreciate it.


I know this is a lot to ask, but to all of you out there that can help, and show your support, please head over to the Patreon home page, every contributor brings this closer into being a sustainable project for me, as of right now, i have a lot to deal with and often i have to put this on the backburn.


Anyway, that is all i wanted to say, i'll see you for the next one.

An opportunity to take full advantage of your flexibility, Milwaukee and Minnesota

Flexibility is key. That's a statement i am constantly making and especially in baseball, a sport where high-end talent goes nowhere unless it's surrounded by a good supporting cast, Votto, Stanton, and Trout will agree to that,


The importance of flexibility cannot be overstated, but the issue is, whenever you get it, the media and fans press you to give it up.


Two very good examples are the Brewers and Twins.


Both teams experienced success for the first time in a while, Minnesota made the playoffs as a wildcard, Milwaukee came within one game of a postseason berth.


Now both fanbases are very optimistic about the future, looking at young talented rosters, light payrolls, opening up all sorts of possibilities


There's a fine line, these 2 teams must learn to walk it. This goes for every situation, always make a move that's in the team's best interest, don't let circumstances dictate your actions, making a splashy sign, because your rival did, bad idea.


Do not pull back on a trade nor free agent offer, because it will chip away at your flexibility, the entire point of having it is being able to use it to improve your ballclub in the future.


But also don't give Yu Darvish 175 mil over 7 years, just because you can.




The flexibility these 2 teams have right now, goes beyond the prospect of budget room to spend, the way these 2 rosters stand right now, you can find a lot of talent, but there's room to improve everywhere, starters, relievers, catchers, corner infield, middle infield, corner outfield.


All except for:


Twins 2B, Dozer. CF, Buxton


Brewers SS, Arcia.


These are the three spots you'd avoid acquiring a player for and even then you can maneuver around with the DH spot, (Dozier) and a corner OF (Buxton), the majority of Brewers position players can play multiple spots.


Here's my suggestion on what they should try to do.


The Miami Marlins are doing a full rebuild, the team is looking for ways to free up the payroll in the hope of not losing a boatload of money, Loria made a mess with that franchise, got two rings and walked away with a huge profit.


One of the main guys they're looking to get rid of, is Martin Prado he's set to make around 28.5 mil over the next 2 years, and he is coming off a down year which causes a lot of people to assume he is washed up.


But looking at his production all the way to 2016, he has provided solid value throughout his career, both Steamer and Zips project him at around 1-1.5 win for 2018 which is solid.


Miami has two prime assets, that they'd happily keep around for now, but with the right offer, they could easily deal them, Cristian Yelich and JT Realmuto


You see where I am going with this.


Both Milwaukee and Minnesota have the roster flexibility to give Prado playing time and open spots to plug in Yelich or Realmuto.


Looking at both rosters it'd make more sense to pursue Yelich, but Jason Castro and Manny Pina aren't exactly cornerstones.


Going over specific offers doesn't make much sense as you never know which prospects the other team is interested in.


But both teams have the farm to make a compelling offer.


The Twins could offer one of their intriguing 2B/SS prospects, Nick Gordon or Wander Javier and a SP Fernando Romero or Stephen Gonsalves as the headliner.


The Brewers could dangle one of their outfielders Lewis Brinson, Corey Ray, Keston Hiura along with a starter like Luis Ortiz or Brandon Woodruff as the main piece.


Both of these teams should really consider this, they have the money, it's not a big commitment, Prado still brings value, Yelich is a game changer for either of them and they have the farm system to do it.





As always feel free to comment, suggest and subscribe, head over to the Patreon home page, your support is greatly appreciated.


I"ll see you for the next one.


Patreon only post, coming tomorrow