Sunday, December 31, 2017

A couple of interesting facts, and an article about Colorado coming tomorrow

Got some stuff to do, Wade Davis article will be up tomorrow, talking about the Rockies strategy, pros, and cons.

2 Interesting Facts:

COL has now committed upwards of 100 mil for 3 years of Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw, more exactly 106 million dollars, 35.3 per year, their age, 32, 31, and 30 respectively, how does that sound?




Another example of why pitching WAR based on FIP makes no sense, Brandon Maurer had an awful year.

59.1 IP 6.52 ERA

he also got terribly unlucky.

3.93 FIP

According to FG, he was worth 0.6 WAR.

No he wasnt, 6.5 runs every 9 IP over 59 IP, is not worth half a win above replacement.

It goes without saying that the odds of him bouncing back are huge, he should pitch much closer to his FIP and be worth somewhat around half a win in 2018, but that has nothing to do with how much he was worth this year, which is what WAR is trying to determine.

His added value was and should be considered negative. Baseball-Reference had
him at -1.2 WAR, which is unquestionably the better evaluation of his performance in 2017

Saturday, December 30, 2017

Interesting fact about baseball in 2017

Baseball has its problems to deal with today, pace of play, international amateur signings, that whole situation is messed up, Ohtani is not an amateur, therefore he shouldn't be inserted into such rules, maybe like a limit of games in the NPB should be estabilished, if the guy plays X amount of games, he qualifies to be posted and receive a major league contract, i don't know, something like that. Another issue is the whole Florida situation, nobody cares about baseball there, the Rays are well run, good ownership, good front office, good success, given their situation in the past 2 decades, but the ballpark is awful and nobody goes there, but even if they had the top ballpark in the sport at the perfect location, the attendance would likely be dissapointing, the iddeal situation from the way i see it is a relocation to Montreal, it's the Expos coming back, people love baseball in that town, there is no team for more than a decade, and the fanbase is still there, but there's just so many hurdles and obstacles to go through that i'm 100% skeptical it could ever happen, the best chance we have of seeing the Expos again is through expansion, but that's way down the road, and i'm all for the Rays, i like watching the small market team beating the mighty Sox in 08, it's fun, moving on to Miami, the Marlins are a huge mess, Loria basically killed the franchise and turned a huge profit while getting a couple of rings from it, the ballpark is great, i personally don't like it, that sculpture in centerfield its one of the stupidest things in a baseball stadium i have ever seen, and the location is far from iddeal, we don't know yet with the new ownership group, the old one was awful, front office lucked into great players like Stanton and Yelich but had no talent surrounding them, which resulted in loussy teams, all in all nobody cares about ghe Marlins, the attendance is a joke.



With that being said i wanted to point out something that's great for Major League Baseball, as of today, December 30, 2017, baseball owns the top 4 cities in the US

New York, after some time off, the Yankees have returned as the Evil Empire bound to rule the American League for years to come and right now are clearly the best sports team in the Big Apple.

Los Angeles, sure the Rams are exciting, youthful and playing great, but look at the attendance in the Collisseum, they still can't sell out a game, and if they lose on the 1rst round, nobody is gonna go overboard, as for the Dodgers they are the 104 win team, filled with stars, that has won its division 5 years in a row, just look at the celebrities that attended the World Series games, everything from Lady Gaga to Larry King, and that's without counting for the LA Angels who are actually from Anaheim that will get its fair share of buzz with the Ohtani sign.




Houston, what is there to say, they are the WS champions, they are young, fun, great, and will probably be around for a long time, it's not even close.

Chicago, it's the Cubbies, i know they already broke the curse, which obviously takes some of the spotlight away but they are still young, still very good, very talented and draw great crowds in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, and watch out for that White Sox rebuild, Jimenez, Moncada, Rodon, Kopech, Giolito, there's potential there.

As always feel free to comment, suggest, subscribe and anything else you feel like it, let's spread the word.

I'll see you tomorrow, talking about that Wade Davis sign.

Thursday, December 28, 2017

The Red Sox are fine, no need to overreact

If you are following this offseason even remotely by now, you probably have noticed that there's a lot of talk about what will the Red Sox do, even prior to the Yankees acquiring Stanton and that obviously just helped increase it, they need a big bat, they need power, it's all you hear around Boston, well i am here to tell you, no they don't, the Red Sox like any team could benefit from some improvement, but in the overall landscape of the league, the Red Sox are fine, here's why.

In 2017 Boston won 93 games, the AL East and a trip to face the to be World Series champions Houston Astros, in a season they were basically carried by their pitching staff who finished the year with the second best ERA+ in the American League behind the historically great Cleveland Indians, interestingly enough if you look at their staff, it doesn't look like much, Sale was great, but struggled in the 2nd half, Pomeranz was pretty good, Kimbrel had a historic season, beyond that is just a lot of meh, Price pitched 74 innings, Porcello stunk, Rodriguez was solid but incosistent and Kelly was pretty good, the good news for Boston is no one really overachieved.

There's no big candidate to come down to earth, you expect Sale to be a 6 WAR player, Pomeranz will probably regress a bit, just nothing really impactful and Kimbrel should regress and have like a 2 win season, but you just can't expect what he did this year on a consistebt basis, is unrealistic, Kelly maybe slighty overachieved but that's pretty minor and that's it, Porcello can't possibly be any worse, a full season out of Price could surely help, people may have forgotten this, but he is still a good player. The point is, the area of strength for them this past year wasn't an area of big overachievement, which means they should be fine for next season



Now on to the hitting side, this is where the Boston fans have a lot to look forward to, this past year the Red Sox finished the season ranked

15th in WAR at 17.8
22nd in WAR at 92 behind the WHITE SOX
28th in ISO at .149
20th in wOBA at .316

This is the same team who led baseball in wRC+ the year before by a wide margin, 114 to 107, regardless of what one may tell you, David Ortiz is not the difference between a team wRC+ of 114 to 92, part of that is affected by him, just part of that.




Below is a list of Red Sox hitters and their wOBA and wRC+ in 2016, 2017 and their Steamer projections for the 2018 season.

Mookie Betts
2016: .379   137
2017: .339   108
2018: .374   132

Jackie Bradley Jr.
2016: .354   119
2017: .313   90
2018: .335   105

Xander Bogaerts
2016: .348   115
2017: .321   96
2018: .341   109

Dustin Pedroia
2016: .358   122
2017: .331   102
2018: .336   105

Hanley Ramirez
2016: .367   128
2017: .318   93
2018: .346   112

Chris Young
2016: .364   126
2017: .310   88
2018: Chris is a free agent

Andrew Benintendi
2016: .357   122
2017: .332   103
2018: .352   117

Note: Obviously Andrew didn't play much in 2016, only 34 games to be exactly, i just wanted to state that the expectations for him were more in line with what he did in 16, than his production this year, he couldn't hit lefties, maybe he can, maybe not, i don't know, and his numbers against righties were merely good.

That is amazing, the decrease in production from one year to another is like everyone decided to have an off year all in the same season, and most of these guys are young, on top of that you get a full year out of Rafael Devers instead of running Pablo Sandoval and Deven Marrero out there.

All of this is to prove that the Red Sox had significantly more underachievers than overachievers and still won 93 games, sure they could use an improvement at first base/designated hitter, but it's not worth paying 100+ for Hosmer nor JD.

Sign a right handed platoon bat for the outfield, preferably one that can play CF, Maybin, Jackson, Gomez even Young all tho i wouldn't push that, if you can get him on a 1 year affordable contract give Bautista some at bats at DH, give Sam Travis a chance and if his market plummets maybe pursue Lucroy, a good player to go after is Neil Walker at like 21/2 he can handle 2B until Pedroia is fully healthy, can spell Devers at 3B once in a while and could get some at bats later in the year as the DH, since 2011 he has had 2 WAR or more seasons in every year, those are the kind of opportunities i'd seek, on top of that you could probably go after one or two relief pitchers on the cheap and maybe another starte as insurance.

My point is the Red Sox are fine, there's a good chance that the Yankees win the AL East next year, but overpaying for a DH won't really change that and it will definitely jeopardize your future.

Boston has an ace, solid starters behind him, a stud closer, some nice relief options and a bunch of young, cheap very good position players, part of your problem now is that the front office a few years ago decided to add two big bats in Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez how well did that work out, how about when you signed than quickly got rid of Gonzalez and Crawford, history is telling you that this is a lousy idea, just listen to it.

Anyway feel free to comment, suggest, subscribe and anything else you feel like it.

See you tomorrow

Wednesday, December 27, 2017

Washington Nationals, what they should do

Hi everyone, i'm here today to talk about the Washington Nationals, a great team who time and time again fails to win a postseason series, interestingly enough they are not the only sports team in Washington that can't win in the postseason, the Washington Capitals can't get over the hump as well, and these aren't borderline playoff teams, these are truly great teams, the 4 times the Nats have lost in the NLDS, they lost to teams with  a worse record than them. It is remarkable.

Mike Rizzo has done a terrific job as the GM, getting Harper and Strasburg with the top picks wasn't a bad way to start, but if you look at it, the Murphy sign, great, how about the Trea Turner trade, high way robbery, he always seems to have good prospects, the Felipe Rivero deal wasn't his best moment, but all in all, he has a lot to be proud of.


But you guys already know all of this, i am here to talk about what they should do, Washington has one of the best teams in baseball, which doesn't leave a lot of room for improvement, they have 2 of the top 5 starters in baseball, 2 other very capable ones, a good bullpen, a loaded infield, and a very good OF, their only clear weakness is at Catcher.




They should absolutely pursue Yasmany Grandal looking at the WAS roster it would be hard to find an offer that would really interest LA, but Matt Wieters is too bad to play every day, it's bad enough to give a below average hitter 550 at bats, andhis defense doesn't do him any favors, they have to pursue a catcher and the best one available is Yas, maybe you can work out something if not, i'd give Detroit a call on McCann he'd be an improvement, and lastly if i could offer a prospect haul that does not include Robles obviously to Miami for JT Realmuto, that'd be great, maybe they like one of the young pitchers, Erik Fedde, Joe Ross, a toolsy outfielder lile Juan Soto, thinking about it, i actually really like that.


The second thing isn't as necessary as the first but it could be very helpful, i'd pursue Wade Davis, going as high as 15 per year, which should keep them under the luxury tax, number one Wade is great but he's not Kenley Jansen or Craig Kimbrel, hence the ceilling at 15, in the postseason Davis has proved he can do it, great performances, it also takes some of the burdens off Madson, Doolittle, and Kintzler, giving you an elite bullpen, if they are going to sign a free agent starter they should either go small, very small like Jaime Garcia, Tyson Ross, Hector Santiago not necessarilly those guys but just 1 year, 4-6 mil guys or go very big and sign Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish, big name guys, preferably Arrieta if cheaper, Darvish's postseason woes in Washington it juat wouldn't feel right, what they should not do is aign Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, not that those guys are bad, is just that you're already close to the luxiry tax, they cost quite a bit and you're probably winjing the division with or without them and lastly in the postseason they don't do much for you, usually 1 or 2 short starts and make no mistake, right now for Washington it's all about the poatseason no fan will care if they 100 games, they need to win playoff series



Hope you guys enjoyed it, feels good to be back, tons of interesting content coming soon, let's spread the word, comment, suggest, subscribe and anything else you feel like it.

See Y'all soon

Twitter: @E_Max27
Email: estevaomaximo_23@hotmail.com 


Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Ranking the game's best Third Basemen

Hi everyone i want to talk about the upper class of third basemen in today's game, giving you a ranking divided into 2 tiers.

There're several good players manning the hot corner in today's game, but i think you'll all agree that these 6 are easily the six best.

Tier 1

1, Kris Bryant
2, Josh Donaldson

Tier 2

3, Justin Turner
4, Manny Machado
5, Nolan Arenado
6, Anthony Rendon

You can debate me on the rankings from 3-6 is just very close, but it's indisputable that Josh and Kris belong in a class of their own, they are simply better hitters, both have career wRC+ above 140, (141 and 143).

Manny and Nolan sit at 115, Rendon at 119 and JT at 125.

I have a tough time putting Rendon at 6, given his body of work but Manny and Nolan have great defense as well and have more power, Rendon really improved his power this past year, but it doesn't go on line with the rest of his career, it might be an adjustment but the likelier explanation is it was an outliar season, i have JT at 3rd because since coming to LA he has multiple 150 wRC+ seasons, his defense isn't as good but it's still good, the last 2 years he has posted 11 WAR.

Josh posted 5 WAR on limited playing time, 113 Games, he has played at least 155 games in 4 of the previous 5 years, his defensive skills are declining which is concerning but they're still good and his hitting ability puts him over the top, all you need to know about Bryant is that in 3 years he has a

.915 OPS, 143 wRC+, .389 wOBA and 21.6 WAR.

Kyle Seager is borderline tier 2, probably in there, slipped my mind at the time

Feel free to comment, subscribe, suggest, the whole nine yards. See Y'all

Twitter: @E_Max27
Email: estevaomaximo_23@hotmail.com

Tampa Bay Rays, why Archer should stay, and Colome should be sent away, the Longo trade was ok

Let's talk some Tampa Bay Rays baseball today, there are several things i want to address, the Longoria trade, should they deal Archer and Colome as well, is this team good enough to make a run, what does it need, and so on so forth, but before anything else, let me make a statement about this franchise.

The Tampa Bay Rays joined the MLB in the late 90's making their debut in the 98 season in their short history, they've made the postseason 4 times, including 2 division titles and an appearance in the Fall Classic, that might not seem much, but given all the circumstances it actually is a lot.

You'll be hard pressed to find a franchise in any of the other 4 major sports in the US more set up for failure, take this into consideration.

Tampa was an expansion franchise in 97, by that time the salaries were increasing rapidly unlike when the first expansion teams were created, Tampa was a small market with little revenue to spend, unlike their expansion counterpart the Arizona Diamondbacks who hit the ground running with a brand new, much better ballpark, spending tons of money early, the Rays were inserted into the AL East home of the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles and Blue Jays all in the upper third of the league in revenue, market size, and budget, all of this plus what now is an atrocious ballpark and you get a team set up for failure.


Now to my first roster related topic, Chris Archer, should he be traded?

Absolutely not, it goes without saying that you should always listen, but actually dealing him without being completely overwhelmed is a bad idea, Chris was ranked 16th in the trade value series by Dave Cameron this past year, for some context Jose Quintana was in the 42nd spot, he is incredibly valuable, down below you'll see his contract

2018: $6.3
2019: $7.5
2020: $9.0
2021: $11.0

Last 2 years are team options

You can't get cheap talent like this, and for a franchise with such a small budget, it's even more important, the Rays have a talented team.

Kiermaier, Souza, Dickerson, Snell, Duffy and their farm system is pretty good, it doesn't take much more to compete for a postseason spot from there, trading Archer now, you would not get peak value out of him, and also give up any chance of making the postseason for the forseeable future when you already have a solid core, with a talented farm. I just don't see that offer out there.

Beyond Robles Washington doesn't have much, Cubs best asset to deal is probably Happ, which is very underwhelming, Red Sox no, the only 3 teams with the pieces to do it are LAD, NYY and HOU, all are known for hanging on to their prospects, LA won't trade Buehler, NYY won't include Torres, HOU acquired Cole, not looking to empty the farm, so you're better off, by keeping him



Alex Colome why should they deal him

If Billy Beane has taught us anything, is that you sell high on relievers, they fluctuate, they break down and regardless of it, 99 out of 100 times you are likely to get the better end of it, consider this the Andrew Miller was a win-win trade right, he has been great for the Tribe, but inspite of it, right now he has 1 year of control and he's no longer worth all of the prospects that the Yankees got for him, same goes for Chapman and tons of others, Alex right now is a valuable piece, but he's not Kenley Jansen, he's just pretty good, if you can get a good prospect haul for him, absolutely do it, and then you sign a Sergio Romo, Bruce Rondon, Seung-hwan Oh on the cheap, hoping one of them pans out, bullpen value fluctuates too much to hold on to guys like Colome


The Evan Longoria was a solid one, Span's numbers the past 2 years were deceiving, i have no clue why the Giants put him in CF, stick him in Left and his WAR will go up; can still provide good value, both pitchers look decent,

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737535&position=P

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737853&position=P

And i like Christian Arroyo's hit tool, for Evan, i think that's ok; he's not that great anymore, still good, but more of a 3 win player than a 5 win one.


Anyway that's it, feel free to comment, suggest, subscribe and anything else you can think of.

To contact me

Twitter: @E_Max27
Email: estevaomaximo_23@hotmail.com

See y'all

Sunday, December 24, 2017

Compensation Picks are more important than you think, Just ask these guys

Signing Free Agents is, has been and will always be a risky move, the risk is mostly dependant on how much you spend, that's why Ohtani was the baseball equivalent of winning the lottery, all-world upside, no risk, but something that tends to get lost somewhere along the way, is the good old compensation pick.


Every team who loses a comp eligible player gets one. While the baseball draft is very unpredictable and the percentage of players that never make the majors is incredibly high, you'll find a lot of stars up there in the top 50 picks or so.


With that in mind let's analyze some free agent signings, that led to compensation picks, that turned out to be very good for the receiving team


Jacoby Ellsbury signs with the Yankees in 13/14 offseason.

The BoSox received a compensation pick from New York, slotted in as the 33rd overall, such pick was used to draft Michael Kopech, the flame thrower is among the top prospects in all of baseball, and the interesting thing is this, he was a big part of the Sale deal, and without him they probably never get him, sure a diferent package could be sent, but the Red Sox had zero intentions of trading Benintendi or Devers at the time, beyond that no one in the farm would really entice the White Sox, Moncada, and some fill ins? No.



Clint Barmes (HOU) signs a 2 year 10.5 mil contract with the Pirates in the 11/12 offseason.

Chances are, you never heard of this guy, but back in 2011 when the type A, type B rules of compensation were still in place, following a career year, in which he had 2.8 WAR with great SS defense, his departure netted a comp pick;

41rst overall to Houston, that year they also had the number 1 pick, they wound picking Correa and Lance McCullers Jr, interestingly enough a big reason why they selected Carlos number 1, was to give him a signing bonus below the slot value, so they had the extra money to get Lance, had Barnes been left off this equation, they do not get Lance and who knows if they pick Correa number 1 with the whole slot to spend, probably yes, but maybe not.


Joaquin Benoit to Detroit 10/11

Netted the Tampa Bay Rays, prized lefty starter Blake Snell, another type B free agent.


Michael Cuddyer to the Rockies 11/12

Minnesota received the 32nd overall pick, they selected Jose Berrios, their best starter today.


Nick Swisher to Cleveland 12/13

Yankees got the 32nd overall pick, selected Aaron Judge



More examples to come later...

Falcons @ Saints, Seahawks @ Cowboys, let's watch some football

Hope you guys enjoyed it, comment, suggest, subscribe and anything else you feel like it.

Twitter: @E_Max27
Email: estevaomaximo_23@hotmail.com 



Saturday, December 23, 2017

Larry Walker, his Cooperstown case, and why it has nothing to do with the actual Hall of Fame

The baseball Hall of Fame is a joke by now, the voters have butchered so many things in so many ways that as we stand today, no fan really cares about it.

Example: Joe DiMaggio, not a first ballot Hall of Famer.

But nevertheless, there's still some discussion about player's cases, why is that.

Because in baseball, just like in all other sports, everybody loves to compare the great ones, even tho in most cases it's completely pointless, and the media encourages it, how many segments in sports shows have you seen about who's the greatest QB ever, is it MJ or Lebron, for a minute there when it was barely plausible, you saw the Harper/Trout debate, decades from now you'll hear the Seager/Correa debate, anyway my point is, we all love it.

So when you heard for years, the sabermetricians of the world stating that Tim Raines was clearly a Hall of Famer, it was mostly about him being an underrated player, whose production came from his OBP and base running which got overlooked by the old school voters, same goes for a guy like Mussina now, in the opposite side you have s guy like Jack Morris who received his support mostly from the veterans, the numbers show he was basically Bartolo Colon for a shorter but nevertheless long period of time, but the postseason performances, throwing a 10 inning shutout in the World Series, eventually got him in.


Before i get into Larry Walker, there's something i want to say, for all of you who support Barry Bonds, here's why there's no way in the world he should make it, first and foremost, to this day he has not publicly admitted his use of PED, much less apologized for it, even Mark McGwire did it for crying out loud, it's obvious his stats are mind blowing, his WPA number blows anyone else who ever played baseball out of the water, so what, who cares, most people who defend him say he'd have made it even without the PED, so he should be in, that's pointless.

The guy was great enough to receive the highest honor the sport offers, to be immortalized alongside the very best, despite that  he cheated the game, you know what that is called, greed, i once made this analogy, it's like a kid smart enough to get an A, cheating to get an A+, it's an insult to all the other players, as it is an insult to all of the other students.

Now let's get into Larry Walker, first let me explain why i chose him, anyone with remote knowledge of baseball knows Scott Rolen and Mike Mussina are Hall of Famers is just nonsense to argue otherwise, so i wanted to something a little more debatable, more off the radar, a guy that to me is a victim of the voters inability to properly evaluate success by a hitter in Coors Field.


Larry Walker's career numbers

313/400/565 Slash Line
11.4 BB%     15.3 K%
.252 ISO     .332 BABIP
.412 wOBA     140 wRC+     68.7 WAR
2160 Hits     383 HR     230 SB     1988 Games     8030 PA



If you ask me, those are Hall of Fame stats. To kick it off, a few interesting takes.


Do you know how many hitters in the history of baseball, have a .310+ AVG with a K% of at least 15?


3, Miggy Cabrera, Joey Votto and Larry Walker


He is 1 of 2 players ever with an ISO of .250 or more, a .400+ OBP and over 200 Stolen Bases, the other one is Barry Bonds.


Let that last one sink in.


Lastly, he is one of eight hitters in all of baseball history to get at least 67 WAR with less than 2000 Games played.


Moving on from the amusing facts, let's contextualize his stats


Walker's .313 career average puts him ahead of legends such as Ichiro Suzuki, Manny Ramirez, Edgar Martinez, Derek Jeter and Mike Trout,, I know about Coors, but among all of them, the lowest BABIP belongs to Larry, that does not change much, but it is noteworthy.


He's one of just six players in MLB history who finished with a .300-plus average, .400-plus on-base percentage, .550-plus slugging percentage, 450 or more doubles, 60 or more triples, 350 or more homers and 1,250-plus RBIs. The other five -- Stan Musial, Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams and Lou Gehrig -- are Hall of Famers.


His .965 OPS is 16th on the all-time list, that's also helped by the rarefied air of Denver, correct, but consider this.



Walker's 140 wRC+, sits ahead of Vladimir Guerrero, Joe Morgan, Ken Griffey Jr,  George Brett, Fred McGriff, Wade Boggs, Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, Jim Edmonds, Carl Yastrzemski and several others, it places him right in line with Alex Rodriguez (141), Chipper Jones (141), Mike Piazza (140), David Ortiz (140), Duke Snider (139) and Reggie Jackson (139), how about that for company



Note: Most of you guys probably know this but maybe someone doesn't, wRC+ is not only one of the best stats to measure a hitter, but also is park adjusted.



The final point to completely shred any, "it was Coors" argument, yeah it is clear that his numbers were significantly better at home than on the road throughout his career, but that's more a testament to how awesome he was in Colorado than any bad outcome on the road.


Career numbers:

Larry Walker on the Road: 278/370/495 .865 OPS Beltran’s career: 279/350/486 .837 OPS Beltran was a CF, different evaluation of a player’s value, i get all of that, but the numbers show, only as a hitter, Walker’s road numbers are an improved version of what Beltran’s career was


From 02-05, FG advanced splits (wOBA, wRC+) only goes back to 02


At Home
337/449/592
.356 BABIP     .255 ISO     .441 wOBA     150 wRC+



On the Road
271/377/487
.305 BABIP     .216 ISO     .373 wOBA     126 wRC+



There's a significant difference there, but his career road OPS of 865 is better than the career marks of Carlos Beltran (836), Buster Posey (850), Darryl Strawberry (862), Paul O'Neill (833), Don Mattingly (830), Chase Utley (828) to name a few.


Walker overall in his career hit .278 on the road in his career, which is higher than 33 position players in the Hall of Fame. And among Hall of Famers whose career began in the Expansion Era (beginning in 1961), it's higher than those of Craig Biggio, Willie Stargell, Ken Griffey Jr, Reggie Jackson, Joe Morgan, Carlton Fisk, Carl Yastrzemski, Mike Schmidt and Johnny Bench

With all of this information can you even remember the time you thought Larry wasn't a Hall of Famer?


Hope you guys enjoyed it, feels good to be back, tons of interesting content coming soon, let's spread the word, comment, suggest, subscribe and anything else you feel like it.


See Y'all soon

Quote by Vince Lombardi Jr."The man on top of the mountain didn't fall there.

I apologize for any mumbling in the article, it's something i struggle with and writing with my cell doesn't help, have you ever listened to FanGraphs Audio, sometimes i'm like Carson Cistulli making an analogy, a whole lot of mumbling.

Twitter: @E_Max27
Email: estevaomaximo_23@hotmail.com


Saturday, December 16, 2017

Explanations, LAD and ATL making a win win money swap and SF Giants question

Hi everyone before i get into today's topic, let me clarify a few things, one, my laptop has gone rogue, i want it to work, but it won't, i'll see if my cousin can lend me hers for a while(she never uses it) for a while at least until i'm able to fix mine, it is what it is, in regards to any ads that may come, i'll do my best to limit it's incovenience, part of it, is not using pop ads who let's face it, are very annoying, if at any time i get any Patreon supporters i'll reconsider or at least substantialyy decrease the number of ads, but for now this is all speculative, i want to reiterate the value of interaction, comments, suggestions, subscribtions feel more than welcome to do it, but with no further delays, let's get into topic.

Anthopoulos makes a trade with his former organization

In a very unexpected turn of events, the Dodgers send to Atlanta, Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, Charlie Culberson and a little over 4 mil in cash considerations in exchange for the most traded untradable player in baseball Matt Kemp, for a dude with a horrible contract he gets moved around quite often, let me summarize what you already know.

This trade is all about Luxury Tax, in terms of money, it was a push, so why would LA give away the possibility of having none of this money in the books next year in the form of one guy who might be an ok innings eater (McCarthy) , AAAA player in Culberson, AGon and Kazmir to pay basically the same amount to a below replacement level player over a 2 year span, if not to get under the luxury tax which cost you 30 mil or so in penalties the previous year,  first let me state that the Dodgers had zero expectations about receiving any real production out of those guys, at max a few decent starts out of McCarthy, there's also nothing expected from Kemp, he probably won't make it until Opening Day, and even if he did, he's just plain bad, to Atlanta's side they have the financial flexibility to add on the extra 20 or so mil this year in order to get it all off the books by next offseason, and whatever you get out of Brandon this year is a bonus, i apologize for the typing mistakes that i made, will fix it by monday, try to write long texts from your phone without spell check, it sucks, anyway that's a wrap, eventually i'll get the Larry Walker HOF article to you guys, always a pleasure, Twitter is @E_Max27

Braves fan probably don't like trades with the Dodgers since the disastrous Wood/Olivera swap

See you guys later.

Question, how come SF needs or at least teades away Matt Moore to shed payroll, but were commited to taking on a huge portion of Stanton's salary, i have the answer. Article on that, coming soon

Friday, December 15, 2017

Santana to Philly, Shaw and McGee to Colorado, and Cosart to Anaheim

A lot of moves being made today, some very intriguing ones, so let's get into it.

Carlos Santana signs for 60/3 with Philadelphia

This sign is a head scratcher, just consider this, what was your instant reaction upon becoming aware of this acquisition, you probably wondered what is Philadelphia thinking, find me someone who reacted saying, oh man what a great sign, that alone says it all, while it's not doomed, it's not brilliant either, why because, one, even tho 60/3 is probably a fair price for his services, it's no bargain, Carlos is a 3 WAR player or something around that, which means they'll be paying him close to 7 mil per WAR, which is about the regular pri itce.

A good thing is that you get an extended look at Hoskins in LF, but at the same time, it might not work, and then what do you do, Philadelphia is in no position to win next year, sure they have the flexibility to sign him, but is it worth to chip away at your flexibility by spending 20 mil for the next 3 years that might prevent you from getting players like Daniel Murphy, Brian Dozier, Garrett Richards, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Drew Pomeranz, Craig Kimbrell, Dallas Kuechel, Andrew McCutchen in next year's market, they obviously will make a run at Harper and Machado, might sign one of them, but the market will go so far beyond those 2 that I'd advise them to keep the cash for next year, give at bats to Altherr and Williams instead of taking it away and consequentionally landing one or two of the aforementioned players, especially when Santana won't get you any further this year, let's say Dozier, for instance, he's been worth over 5 WAR in each of his last two seasons, wouldn't Philadelphia be better off by signing him next year using Santana's money to cover part of it, my point is this move does Philly no good, it can work and in a couple years from now, he's a contribuitor on a contender, but at the same time you could easily keep the money let the young guys play this year and sign someone in the next offseason and it might also be 20 mil of dead weight in 2020 on an up and coming team, if it were me i would not do it.

Note: Dozier is probably not the best example when accounting for Cesar Hernandez and Scott Kingery already there, but a lot can change in a year and Brian was just one random name that came to mind, I could very well use Keuchel, Grandal, McCutchen or someone else as an example the FA class is loaded.



The Colorado Rockies signing McGee, Shaw and possibly Holland


Somebody needs to tell Jeff Bridich that their offense sucks and overpaying for middle relievers is not a good idea, Shaw's 27/3 is barely ok still a tad over my comfort zone, McGee's also 27/3 with an option that i seriously hope is not a player one, but Jake's K% by month were alarming

April: 32%
May: 38%
June: 22%
July: 21%
August: 20%
September: 15%

Colorado has young pitching options that I like, Marquez, Gray, Rusin, Senzatela, Freeland, Hoffman, Bettis and others, spending 18 mil on a couple of middle relievers that are ok, when you have two great hitters and a bunch of mediocre play after that, you should pay more attention to that side, Iannetta was a nice addition but they need more to succeed.



Los Angeles Angels sign Cosart


At last Trout is bound to get help, Zack for 38/3 is a sign i approve, his offensive breakout gives him the upside but his great defensive skills give him the floor to at the very least cover his salary, Zips has him at 6.6 WAR over the 3 years of his contract and that's with a very modest offensive projection, 2.2 WAR per year making a little over 12.6 with the hitting upside i'll take that any day of the week, but something people who will undoubtely jump on the Angels bandwagon will forget, the Angels have zero pitching depth, Ohtani is great, Richards who knows if he will get healthy, beyond that who do you trust, they lost Petit who was probably one of their most reliable pitchers last year, so while it might work with the Parker Bridwells of the world it also can go south with such a thin pitching staff.



Anyway that's a wrap, hope you guys enjoyed it, i know this is hardly my A game, but i'm still not feeling well, hoping to recover soon, feel free to coment, suggest and subscribe, my Twitter account is @E_Max27

See y`all

Wednesday, December 13, 2017

What if... Involving Mike Trout

Hi everyone, maybe some of you already heard this, but it`s an interesting fact and i wrote about it, a while back in a thread of an online OOTP(baseball simulation game) league and thought to myself, perhaps you`ll enjoy this.


 In the 2009 MLB Draft, the Angels had back to back compensation picks in the first round located at the 24th and 25th spot overall, the first one was a compensation from the Mets for the signing of K-Rod, Francisco Rodriguez, the second one was a compensation from the Yankees for the signing of Mark Teixeira.

The Angels themselves had forfeited their pick. 32nd overall in compensation for the signing of Brian Fuentes, until here, very common situations, right, but the interesting part comes next, the Yankees had a first rounder as compensation for the Phillies signing Raul IbĂĄnez, so when the draft day came, the Angels had the 24th and 25th pick and the Yankees the 29th.


Down below there is a link to an ESPN article about how the Yankees were planning to take an Outfielder out of Millville Senior High School by the name of Mike Trout.


espn.go.com/blog/new-york/yankees/post/_/id/85883/on-biggest-day-in-mlb-yankees-will-hold-highest-draft-pick-in-22-years



Now the problem was, the Bronx squad was doubtful that the OF would make it to the 29th pick, by now you know that they were right, the kid got picked at the 25th spot overall by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, just letting you know that one pick before, the Angels took another OF bat from High School named Randall Grichuk, he was later sent to the Cardinals on a trade, here it's where thing get tricky.


The Yankees a few picks later in disbelief for missing out on their top choice, went with OF Slade Heathcott also out of High School, what's interesting is. the pick that got Trout was the one that the Yankees forfeited off, for the price of signing Mark Teixeira, and the Yankees would've had at least a 50% chance of landing Trout had they not signed him, it`d have come down to who the Angels prefered, Grichuk or Trout, Randall was taken ahead of Mike, but that hardly qualifiies as proof that they liked him more, considering other factors as the slot bonus could`ve been involved, but knowing it was this close it`s interesting, leaving you Yankee fans, more reason to be pissed off about NY signing Teixeira, cause he might`ve been the only reason why Mike Trout isn't wearing Pin Stripes today.


Note: It`s easy to look back and say this is just Cashman trying to make himself and the scouts look good, by saying they knew all along how great he was, but i don't know and maybe just maybe, he`s telling the truth


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Twitter is @E_Max27 look me up for a chat.



See Y'all, more pieces coming soon.






Monday, December 11, 2017

Avoid trading for Marcell Ozuna

The offseason is finally heating up, we've moved past the Stanton and Ohtani talks, and it seems like there's a lot of action to come in the next few days, there are a lot of topics to discuss, but today i want to talk about teams that are bidding for Marcell Ozuna.

Basically i'd avoid trading for him and here is why, first i don't know for sure who is Marcell Ozuna, his performance this year was signficantly better especially from a hitting standpoint than anything he had done in his career, so while he may very well be the player he showed he could be, this year, it wouldn't shock me if he wasn't, beyond that even if we assume he's going to keep up this level of performance, he's expected to make upwards of 10 mil next year, while being controllable for the only 2 seasons, and if as i said he continues to play at this level, he will not sign an extension, why he won`t, because, well putting aside the fact that he is a Boras client which doesn't matter as much as some people think but is nevertheless relevant, consider this when was the last time you saw young good/great players making this much money already, this close to Free Agency signing extensions covering FA years, is just not worth it to them, they rather play it out and hit the open market, a better way to say it is, his extension window has closed, so you're either getting an ok/good player for 2 years with the possibility of bringing him back on a short term deal to restabilish his value, or the slightly more likely scenario in which you are getting a good/very good player who gives you roughly 7-10 WAR and then heads to the open market where it becomes very difficult to resign him, considering this i'd rather go the extra mile if i'm St Louis or LAD and make a run at Yelich who's much cheaper, controllable long term, better track record, higher ceilling, higher floor, great Left Fielder like Ozuna, more athletic therefore is capable of playing Center Field, all things being equal, just a bigger asset, hence the higher cost, but nevertheless worth it, if i'm the Giants the better option is Andrew McCutchen, why, because he's set to make about 14.5 Mil and then is a FA next year, but for San Francisco he fits better, one, they can't afford Yelich, too depleted farm system, two, they have money to spend which facilitates resigning Cutch, he also can play anywhere in the outfield and their farm matches up with Pit, perhaps Arroyo long term SS for them, Aramis Garcia at catcher, there are options, but really the key here is the farm, Giants just don't have the pieces for Yelich, there are other teams insterested in Marcell but these were the ones i really sense as suitors right now, a note, for all the talk about Cristian not quite living up to what is expected from him, he has the same career wRC+ 115, as the future 400 Million dollars man, Manny Machado, plus he walks which is great. Eventually, he probably will be moved, someone will jump the gun and overpay, someone always does.

As always, feel free to comment, subscribe, suggest, give me your take, whatever you feel like it.

Note: Jack Morris is not a HOF SP people, career ERA+ 105, that`s slightly above average, not all time great, for some context, Doug Fister sits at 110, he had some nice postseason moments against the Yankees, are we going to put him in Cooperstown, it`s a joke ok, there`s always someone who takes it seriouslly, i can name a bunch of guys who should make it before him, Rolen, Hoffman, Wagner, Mussina, and Schilling to say a few, give me a break, don't start with the postseason argument, Bumgarner has the postseason argument and is significantly better than Morris, I don't see a lot of people putting him in the Hall of Fame, sorry about the small rant, but hey no one really cares about the Hall of Fame this is more about player analysis and comparison, good for him(Jack).

See you 

Sunday, December 10, 2017

Takeaways from the Stanton trade

Hey guys are we in 2003, big star making a boat load of money on a lousy team, demands a trade, very few suitors available, an agreement is reached, obstacles are presented, the trade fails to go through and the Yankees swoop in at the final hour, very quickly reach an agreement and get the superstar, in several ways these 2 situations are different, the obvious one, the fact that A-Rod wanted to go to the Red Sox and saw the trade fail due to finnancial issues, where as the only obstacle in the way of Stanton and both St Louis and San Francisco, was Giancarlo himself who ultimately vetoed both deals, but the funny thing is that the prefered landing spot for Stanton, the Dodgers, as we know also held talks with Miami and were willing to acquire the big slugger on their own terms, but in the end an agreement wasn't reached due to what, finnancial reasons, ironic right, now let's take a look at this, from diferent perspectives.

From a Giancarlo standpoint he obviously wanted to win, but that didn't mean accepting a trade to the first contender who picked up the phone, it was reported that he gave Miami a list of teams to which he'd approve a trade to, those teams were the Cubs, Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers, only the latter two showed interest, Chicago and Houston were completely unrealistic, and my point is, Miami fans should be grateful to Stanton, why, you ask, because it was pretty clear that Giancarlo's first choice was the Dodgers, there's no way to know it for sure, but that's more than a safe assumption, and LA made an offer or at least a sketch of one, but unlike the other 3 interested teams, they wanted Miami to take back a big contract like AGon or Kazmir and throw in cash, all and all something around 75 mil and the reigning NL MVP didn't force the Marlins hand by vetoing the Yankees trade, had he done that, Miami would have been in a tricky situation, i believe they'd have traded him eventually to LA, because keeping him just wasn't viable, but there was the possibility of shuting the door and doing what was reported that they did, which is hey we are trading everyone else, clearing up the payroll and you can either accept a deal to one of these teams or play here alone on an empty ballpark, whichever way it went, it wouldn't be a comfortable situation for either side, so Stanton went with it, and now is a Yankee, i don't know if he was as fine with going to New York as he was going to Los Angeles, that it mattered, probably never will, but if it did, he played with the music and got Miami a better deal, not the best, as St Louis and San Francisco appear to have made better offers, but nevertheless better than what the Dodgers were willing to give.

The Marlins obviously did well given the circumstances, having 2 trades vetoed, obviously was a setback but getting two intriguing prospects, a trade chip in Starlin Castro and getting rid of more than 260 mil of the remaining 295, all in all, you gotta be happy about that, plus if he opts out, Miami doesn`t have to pay anything at all.

From the Dodgers side of things, there's nothing to celebrate, but also nothing to be sad about, here. As i wrote before they had an opportunity, knowing Stanton's top choice was LA, they could simply offer Miami something halfway decent, a plausible deal, basically do their worst, to see if Stanton would use his leverage, and force Miami into such deal, or keep him, LA did that, they asked for salary relief and taking AGon, Kazmir or McCarthy which is right around what I was thinking, getting Stanton and not sending back one of those three, was not viable for LA, and ultimately Stanton made it easier on Miami and just okayed the Yankees trade, and the silverlining for LA, is one less bidder for Harper, and that one team is the only franchise with your kind of revenue, for people who still think Harper to New York could happen, neither one should or can play CF, DH is just not a viable option, and even if you are insane enough to plug one of them in there, you are commitinh north of 70 mil per year for close to a decade on two outfielders, that's unimaginable, so LA fans you'll be fine, a great team already.

From the Giants and Cardinals standpoint, you got rejected it sucks, but there's a bright side,  one for the Giants this could easily have gone south, the deal you offered included giving up a lot, two top 10 prospects, and Panik that's no bargain, you will improve next year, full years out of MadBum, Melancon and whatever version of Sam Dyson you get, Samardzija can expect better luck to pair it up with great K-BB%, Matt Moore and Johnny Cueto can't possibly be any worse, and the Giants have made a living of outperforming their expectation, 3 WS in 5 years, the Cardinals have been good forever and even before then, while not making the playoffs they've won games the past two years, as you know they have a lot of talent, just not a lot of great talent and with a couple of right moves and a big bat in free agency like Machado or Donaldson, everyone knows the Cardinals will be fine, they are the Cardinals, baseball loyalty, very well run organization.

Lastly from the Yankees perspective, it's disturbing to know you're facing Stanton, Judge and Sanchez, but New York had more money to spend this offseason than LA and when you have this much cash, you can afford to bet on the possibility of carrying close to 30 mil of dead weight in your payroll in the final years of the contract, assuming it all goes south, if it doesn't even better, losing Castro hurts a bit, but not much really, the two prospects were on the second tier of their system, still two good ones, but really this trade was all about the money.

Anyway that's all, no real losers to me, Marlins still need a lot of work but it's a step in the right direction, next one sell Ozuna, peak value right now, not an option long term, Giants and Cardinals will both be fine, Dodgers, still a juggernaut, Yankees take on a big contract, with less risk than it would carry for most teams, because they are the Yankees, and Giancarlo gets to play in the Bronx and be a contender for a very, very long time.

Note: I'm not a Giants fan, but i'm still begging them, don't sign Moustakas, you'll one, be overpaying him, two, and most importantly you'll be giving up your second and fifth highest draft picks and $1 Mil in international bonus space, like your farm system isn't bad enough already.

Leave a comment, suggestion and subscribe for more pieces, sorry for the lack of articles these last few days, a lot of writing to come, reviews, suggestions, concepts, tons of content.

See you guys later.

Sorry for the mumbling, if there was any.

Saturday, December 9, 2017

Trading for Dee Gordon was a mistake

Jerry Dipoto made another trade, the Cleveland Browns are an underdog in their next matchup, Alabama made the playoffs winning yet another argument vote, facts that by know you are taught to expect. First and foremost i'm not condemning the move, nor do i think it has no upside, but in a risk/reward evaluation, there were better ways to address Center Field for the Seattle Mariners.

Looking around the league there's obviously a connection between speed and great defense in the Outfield, but it's not like bad plate discipline/ power hitter where you just know it won't work on the long haul, i'm talking to you Rougned Odor. Billy Hamilton, Byron Buxton great defenders, Delino DeShields not so much, therefore we cannot assume Dee Gordon will be Kevin Kiermaier out there, who by the way is no Usain Bolt. Dee Gordon is set to make 10.5 million this year, and 37 mils overall with a 2021 vesting option of 14 in 2021, i'd call that a lot of things, a bargain not being one of them, let's not forget he turns 30 right at the beginning of the season.

Here's my problem with Gordon he's success is dependant on a high BABIP, to drive up his AVG, he is incapable of Walking and his 15.1 K% is nit exactly great, considering it puts him in line with Nolan Arenado (14.9), AJ Pollock (15.0), Ben Zobrist (14.8) and Brian McCann (15.2), with no power whatsoever i'd prefer a lower number, given all these hurdles that he overcomes to still be a good player, his upside is limited, a 4.8 WAR season like he had in 2015, is as high as he can get, and to do that he needed to deviate .38 percentage points from his career BABIP,,  a deviation in defensive performance 13 DRS, career best, at second is 3:DRS this year,; 6.4 UZR which he only matched this year, Steamer projects him at 1.7 WAR, which to me is a little low, but the numbers are right in line with his career norms, my point is you just traded away your second best prospect which means less than it sounds, given how poor their farm system is, but still a good prospect as stated byelow by prospect guru Eric Longenhagen: "Nick Neidert is a good prospect. Saw him at 87-91 this year. Plus changeup, plus command. Fastball's movement, Neidert's 3/4s slot, and his cross-body delivery allow it - and his breaking ball - to play up against RHH. Think's he's a weird, reverse splits, #4 starter. A 50.", an ok one and a fringe one for a player with a 1.5-2 WAR floor that's while playing solid defense which you have no idea he can, and his upside is 1 maybe 2 WAR more, that's it and all his value comes from defense, baserunning, and singles, that's not that bad, but i'd rather have Jarrod Dyson back at a lower price, 6-8 mil per year, 2 maybe 3 years (vesting option) while keeping my prospects, they are virtually the same player, Dyson doesn't hit for as high an AVG but his 8.0 BB% crushes Gordon's 4.5.



I mentioned Jay and Gomez in the previous Mariners article, but with Dee Gordon's skillset, Dyson is a better fit for that profile and look at their career numbers.

Dee Gordon
293/329/367 Slash Line
4.5 BB%     15.1 K%     .305 wOBA   93wRC+
711 Games     3012 PA     11.6 WAR

Jarrod Dyson
258/325/352 Slash Line
8.0 BB%     16.3 K%     .299 wOBA  86wRC+
661 Games     1929 PA     14.8 WAR

Now let's look at their Steamer projections for next year

Dee Gordon
280/317/360 Slash Line
4.6 BB%     15.1 K%     .295 wOBA  85wRC+
144 Games     651 PA     1.7 WAR

Jarrod Dyson
261/328/369 Slash Line
7.7 BB%     15.2 K%     .304 wOBA  85wRC+
105 Games     415 PA     1.6 WAR

What does this show, Dyson is a better player than Gordon, he'd be cheaper and wouldn't cost prospects, a note, Gordon's projections in WAR don't account for CF, but that wouldn't change much, looking at this, tell me how Gordon is a better acquisition than Dyson.

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See Y'all, more pieces coming soon