Monday, April 8, 2019

Champions League Quarterfinals are Here!

Today we are here to talk about the Uefa Champions League's Quarterfinals, it has been a week since the matchups have been defined and as it would have been regardless of who plays whom we are in for 4 great football games.

PS: It's really a shame that we only get to watch 2 of them live, given that they will be played simultaneously, 2 on a Tuesday and the other 2 on a Wednesday.

These are the four duels we'll get in the 18/19 edition of the Uefa Champions League:

Tottenham Hotspur x Manchester City

Liverpool x Porto

Ajax x Juventus

Manchester United x Barcelona

This is a very odd season, for a a while now it has been pretty much a consensus that there's no big favourite that stands out ahead of the pack and thinking about it that does make sense but here is a counterpoint.

In the last decade or so the Champions League has been dominated by three teams:

Bayern Munich of Robben and Robert.

Barcelona of Messi.

Real Madrid of Cristiano Ronaldo.

Obviously we saw other teams shine in the competition, Internazionale won it during that time span but they have been a non factor for a while, only this year that they got back into playing among Europe's best.

Chelsea also won it, but they should've won it in any other of half a dozen years when they were significantly better structured, more prepared and it didn't happen, so there are other factors that played a role in that season.

More recently Juventus and Atletico Madrid have been to a couple of finals each, but both failed to beat Barcelona once and Real Madrid three times, so there's always a little bit of skepticism in their ability to go all the way, whether that's a correct perception or not it's another subject.

Think about those three teams and consider that Ronaldo left Madrid and even before they were categorically defeated by Ajax at the Bernabeu, there wasn't a lot of belief that this Real Madrid team could go all the way and the little belief that there was only existed because it's Real Madrid and in an era of great success in the Biggest stage.

Let us not forget that Los Galacticos n this century for a while seemed to always be defeated in the Round of 16, that side didn't have what this one now has, the public belief that no matter what they'll go through and at least be a factor until the very end. With this in mind Real Madrid were never the big favourites this season.

Bayern is enduring the end of an era, a side with aging stars on the decline, Robben and Robert stand out, although Hummels, Boateng, Muller and Neuer are all Declining, thus not playing at a level they once did, which is odd to say the least, taking into account their age.

Bayern with the signings of Pavard and Hernandez (coming next summer) are in the process of replacing or at least trying to replace some major pieces that were cornerstones for a team that was virtually a lock for the Uefa Champions League semifinal on a yearly basis for practically a decade, a bit of a stretch but you know what I mean, a team that probably  should've won more and only didn't because they happened to face two of the 5 greatest players ever and that is undisputable.

Then again they lost two Champions League finals and neither one involved Messi nor Ronaldo, surely that final at home against Chelsea must  be looked at, as the one that got away.

Even with the tradition and blackness of a clear cut favorite, Bayern never threatenwd to take that position.

Barcelona remains the strongest of the three this year, now that's obvious given that the other two were eliminated, but even before the round of 16 began that was clear, Why you ask?

Because they still have Messi at top form unlike Real who sold Ronaldo and Bayern that's seen its stars decline.

Because despite a significantly worse performance as a unit from what they once were, Messi seems to always decide games in which they've been outplayed and although Xavi and Iniesta are both gone, individually this roster is not worse than those from the Guardiola days at least not significantly worse, some key players like Dani Alves for instance are very much missed but Rakitic to me is a underrated players, Arthur seems to be made in a Lab to emulate Xavi and you undoubtedly have more offensive firepower.

A third reason that's probably more or as important as any is that regardless of how that team compares to the one from a few years back, this team in terms of individual talent is as good as any in the world, you could make an argument that with the presence of Messi that they are the best, and the Messi factor can level the playing field when comparing Barcelona to teams that are better trained, tactically better thus performing at a higher level as a unit, like Manchester City or even Liverpool as an example.

Lastly we have Madrid that especially with Zidane at the helm seemed to always elevate their level of play (which probably was never the highest or as high as it could be) in the big games, it's not that they were often mediocre and happened to win the Champions League three times in a row, there were some great moments especially in that second year but they didn't dominate as often as one would think for a team that accomplished so much, and as we saw this year you can only elude defeat so many times until it catches up to you, clearly there were other factors that played a role in that elimination, no Ronaldo, an even more inconsistent side but you can't deny any of them.

Considering all of that it was and it is clear that this year's edition was about as wide open as it could be, and with the Quarterfinals set, we see something very interesting.

All four matchups have clear favourites that can be identified by anyone, not all will agree but the consensus is that if Barcelona, Juventus, Manchester City and Liverpool go through to the semifinals it will surprise no one, but...

Looking at each game individually you'll see that a lot can happen.



Manchester City vs Tottenham

We had almost this exact scenario last year, Manchester City with an outstanding campaign in the Premier League, already champion of the Carabao Cup facing an opponent from England with a smaller budget, out of the title race, coming with a manager that's been there a while but hasn't won a title, fighting for a top four finish in the Premier League, a significant difference is that City had already won the   League by this time last year, unlike the current season where they are fighting head to head with Liverpool for the title.

Now most of those facts do not play a role in the duel and can be looked at as coincidence, but one cannot overlook the fact that Tottenham despite what they spend can beat any team any time, a big problem that's cost them a Premier League title in the past is that they can be inconsistent and endure too many ups and downs. One of the keys to the game for me at least is can Mauricio Pochettino come up with a gameplan that disrupts City's tempo, it's obvious that Guardiola's side will dominate time of possession and I don't see Tottenham beating them with 2 banks of four, always compacted, looking for one ball, maybe a set piece and then playing the second leg not to lose, they are not equipped that way and I don't see it working, to beat them I believe they will have to look for periods in the match to beat them in intensity and catch them off guard, if they can do that we'll be in for a great game.



Manchester United x Barcelona

Out of all the four matchups this is the only one where we see two teams with equal conditions, two European giants with massive budgets, surely you could make an argument that Barcelona is better but it's nothing alarming and the problem with Man United was never individual quality, putting Messi aside (like that's possible) they stand in the same level as Barcelona. Solskjaer has repeatedly exceeded everyone's expectation, how much of that is linked to the psychological side and how much to the tactical side won't become clear until later on.

It's true that United has declined in the recent games both in performance and result, the only victory since that night in Paris has been a 2-1 win against a Watford that impressed no one, but to keep up the level Solskjaer established when he first got in there was an impossible task, at least for the time being.

I certainly can't and will not argue that this is a 50/50 duel but putting United at 4 to 1 odds as I have seen in a lot of places well that's pushing it.

How many times has Lionel Messi bailed out Barcelona when they had subpar performances, they have a comfortable lead in LaLiga but that's a testament to the lack of another real contender for the title this season as much as anything else, obviously the fact that he has done that so many times means he can do that again but for a team who relies on one man so often due to its inability to perform well as an unit playing against an United side that for all it's issues can be deadly on the counter I just don't see a justification for such a large favoritism.

A lot of people think United is going to sit back and try to absorb pressure as much as possible and rely on quick transitioning to catch Valverde's side off guard and I can see some of that for parts of this encounter but regardless of Barcelona's struggle against that type of opposition if United plays like they did in Paris it will be ugly, especially until Dalot came in and moved Young into what became a back 3, yes they sat back and gave PSG the ball but the key is they were extremely passive, they left a lot of space, PSG just failed to convert chances time and time again, with the quality in the midfield that Barcelona has I don't see that happening.

Solskjaer can do one of two things. He can either sit back as he did but with a much more aggressive posture one that doesn't give the opposition as much space and really do a better overall job at closing the holes and denying chances or he can bw bold pressing Barcelona and occupying the final third of the field at least for periods within the match. We'll just have to wait and see.

As it is with all four games there is a obvious favorite but whatever happens I see this being a close game over the 180 minutes.



Liverpool x Porto

Here we have a repeat of last year's round of 16 encounter one that was decided pretty quickly when the Reds came in and scored 5 at Porto on a 5-0 win, that's a longshot to happen again, yes overall Liverpool is a better side but that clearly was one of those games where the weaker side is keeping it close and thus maintaining itself in the game but once the opposition manages to break through and score the first, the other team then must change it's position which opens up more space for the team ahead to explore and it just piles on from there but when you look back the play over the 90 minutes it doesn't necessarily reflect what you saw on the field.

I really see Liverpool amongst the favorites to win this Champions League, behind no one really and their display against Bayern only helped solidify that theory, they won comfortably without being brilliant in that sense they sort of reminded me of Real Madrid in these last few years.

For Porto the key really is do not give Liverpool's attacking three room to run, make them create chances from the midfield and do it marking Firmino very tightly he is their most creative player probably in terms of finding passes and creating chances, try and take advantage of the attacking fullbacks that the Reds have, staying away from Van Dijk (easily the best defender in the world right now)
They really have no better option than dropping back and leaving Liverpool as little room to run as possible.

Overall given what Ajax have already proven that they can do against both Real Madrid and Bayern Munich in this Uefa Champions League edition I see this rematch of last season as the one with the greatest difference between the odds on both sides.



Juventus x Ajax

This could easily be considered the most interesting matchup of the four especially from a tactical point of view, how will Ajax play, will they keep the same level of boldness, try and be a little more pragmatic, how will Allegri prepare Juve, we all have a general idea of what both teams will try to do but how well they do it will affect a lot of what comes after, whether it's the first 15 minutes, first half or the first game, the adjustments will definitely come.

Whether Ronaldo will even play or not we don't know, a lot of that I think comes from the fact they are playing Ajax not Barcelona maybe that isn't the case, but I really doubt that. Weather it is wise or not we don't know, ask Sergio Ramos he went through a very similar situation but that's a topic for another day.

There are a lot of battles within the war that we can discuss like how will David Neres try to explore the hole left behind by Cancelo that likes to go forward a lot will the Portuguese fullback even start is Tadic going to produce at the same level playing as the false 9 dropping back behind the defensive midfielders, Pjanic and De Jong both control the pace of their team they are the thermometers if you like that sort of thing, how will they be marked, who's gonna get more space to work with, if Blind plays as a centre back will Ronaldo or Mandzukic position themselves behind him in on crosses through the area to try and produce headers on his back, something Juve is known for doing. Both representing different alternatives are Dolberg and Dybala bound to get in on the action and play key parts in this showdown involving two former winners of the Champions League.

Given Ajax style of play and the record Juventus has in the last few years regardless of who wins the first leg this won't be decided until the end of the match in Turin.

For now that is all I hope you all enjoyed this article, I will see you soon with reviews of each match and what to expect for the second leg.

If you enjoyed what you saw, spread the word, also I encourage everyone to interact and communicate with me, comment, leave your opinion and we will certainly talk about it.

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