The offseason is finally heating up, we've moved past the Stanton and Ohtani talks, and it seems like there's a lot of action to come in the next few days, there are a lot of topics to discuss, but today i want to talk about teams that are bidding for Marcell Ozuna.
Basically i'd avoid trading for him and here is why, first i don't know for sure who is Marcell Ozuna, his performance this year was signficantly better especially from a hitting standpoint than anything he had done in his career, so while he may very well be the player he showed he could be, this year, it wouldn't shock me if he wasn't, beyond that even if we assume he's going to keep up this level of performance, he's expected to make upwards of 10 mil next year, while being controllable for the only 2 seasons, and if as i said he continues to play at this level, he will not sign an extension, why he won`t, because, well putting aside the fact that he is a Boras client which doesn't matter as much as some people think but is nevertheless relevant, consider this when was the last time you saw young good/great players making this much money already, this close to Free Agency signing extensions covering FA years, is just not worth it to them, they rather play it out and hit the open market, a better way to say it is, his extension window has closed, so you're either getting an ok/good player for 2 years with the possibility of bringing him back on a short term deal to restabilish his value, or the slightly more likely scenario in which you are getting a good/very good player who gives you roughly 7-10 WAR and then heads to the open market where it becomes very difficult to resign him, considering this i'd rather go the extra mile if i'm St Louis or LAD and make a run at Yelich who's much cheaper, controllable long term, better track record, higher ceilling, higher floor, great Left Fielder like Ozuna, more athletic therefore is capable of playing Center Field, all things being equal, just a bigger asset, hence the higher cost, but nevertheless worth it, if i'm the Giants the better option is Andrew McCutchen, why, because he's set to make about 14.5 Mil and then is a FA next year, but for San Francisco he fits better, one, they can't afford Yelich, too depleted farm system, two, they have money to spend which facilitates resigning Cutch, he also can play anywhere in the outfield and their farm matches up with Pit, perhaps Arroyo long term SS for them, Aramis Garcia at catcher, there are options, but really the key here is the farm, Giants just don't have the pieces for Yelich, there are other teams insterested in Marcell but these were the ones i really sense as suitors right now, a note, for all the talk about Cristian not quite living up to what is expected from him, he has the same career wRC+ 115, as the future 400 Million dollars man, Manny Machado, plus he walks which is great. Eventually, he probably will be moved, someone will jump the gun and overpay, someone always does.
As always, feel free to comment, subscribe, suggest, give me your take, whatever you feel like it.
Note: Jack Morris is not a HOF SP people, career ERA+ 105, that`s slightly above average, not all time great, for some context, Doug Fister sits at 110, he had some nice postseason moments against the Yankees, are we going to put him in Cooperstown, it`s a joke ok, there`s always someone who takes it seriouslly, i can name a bunch of guys who should make it before him, Rolen, Hoffman, Wagner, Mussina, and Schilling to say a few, give me a break, don't start with the postseason argument, Bumgarner has the postseason argument and is significantly better than Morris, I don't see a lot of people putting him in the Hall of Fame, sorry about the small rant, but hey no one really cares about the Hall of Fame this is more about player analysis and comparison, good for him(Jack).
See you
Basically i'd avoid trading for him and here is why, first i don't know for sure who is Marcell Ozuna, his performance this year was signficantly better especially from a hitting standpoint than anything he had done in his career, so while he may very well be the player he showed he could be, this year, it wouldn't shock me if he wasn't, beyond that even if we assume he's going to keep up this level of performance, he's expected to make upwards of 10 mil next year, while being controllable for the only 2 seasons, and if as i said he continues to play at this level, he will not sign an extension, why he won`t, because, well putting aside the fact that he is a Boras client which doesn't matter as much as some people think but is nevertheless relevant, consider this when was the last time you saw young good/great players making this much money already, this close to Free Agency signing extensions covering FA years, is just not worth it to them, they rather play it out and hit the open market, a better way to say it is, his extension window has closed, so you're either getting an ok/good player for 2 years with the possibility of bringing him back on a short term deal to restabilish his value, or the slightly more likely scenario in which you are getting a good/very good player who gives you roughly 7-10 WAR and then heads to the open market where it becomes very difficult to resign him, considering this i'd rather go the extra mile if i'm St Louis or LAD and make a run at Yelich who's much cheaper, controllable long term, better track record, higher ceilling, higher floor, great Left Fielder like Ozuna, more athletic therefore is capable of playing Center Field, all things being equal, just a bigger asset, hence the higher cost, but nevertheless worth it, if i'm the Giants the better option is Andrew McCutchen, why, because he's set to make about 14.5 Mil and then is a FA next year, but for San Francisco he fits better, one, they can't afford Yelich, too depleted farm system, two, they have money to spend which facilitates resigning Cutch, he also can play anywhere in the outfield and their farm matches up with Pit, perhaps Arroyo long term SS for them, Aramis Garcia at catcher, there are options, but really the key here is the farm, Giants just don't have the pieces for Yelich, there are other teams insterested in Marcell but these were the ones i really sense as suitors right now, a note, for all the talk about Cristian not quite living up to what is expected from him, he has the same career wRC+ 115, as the future 400 Million dollars man, Manny Machado, plus he walks which is great. Eventually, he probably will be moved, someone will jump the gun and overpay, someone always does.
As always, feel free to comment, subscribe, suggest, give me your take, whatever you feel like it.
Note: Jack Morris is not a HOF SP people, career ERA+ 105, that`s slightly above average, not all time great, for some context, Doug Fister sits at 110, he had some nice postseason moments against the Yankees, are we going to put him in Cooperstown, it`s a joke ok, there`s always someone who takes it seriouslly, i can name a bunch of guys who should make it before him, Rolen, Hoffman, Wagner, Mussina, and Schilling to say a few, give me a break, don't start with the postseason argument, Bumgarner has the postseason argument and is significantly better than Morris, I don't see a lot of people putting him in the Hall of Fame, sorry about the small rant, but hey no one really cares about the Hall of Fame this is more about player analysis and comparison, good for him(Jack).
See you
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