The Seattle Mariners are stuck, that`s a fact, not a topic of argument, I`ll tell you what they should do, but first, some context into what exactly I am saying. There are several ways to categorize sports franchises, such as big market, average market, and small market, core franchises(as in teams who started at the same time as their league), expansion franchises and relocated franchises, but I wanna use a category that accounts for their roster and where they stand right now as to future performance, while there may be different levels within these categories, you can pretty easily divide them into:
Perennial contenders, those who for a variety of reasons are expected to contend this year and on a future window of generally 3 to 5 years, ex: LAD, NYY, HOU, BOS, CHC and others.
Stuck in the middle: these are franchises who as we stand today, don`t have enough major league talent to truly contend, nor enough minor league talent to be rebuilding with an eye in the future.
ex: SEA, BAL, TOR, KC(they are probably heading into rebuild mode, probably)
Full on rebuilders: these are franchises, who completely gave up on any hope of contending in the near future, and are managing their club with an eye on the long haul, ex: CHW, OAK, SD, CIN and others.
It`s no secret that the worst group to be in is the middle one, it might not be the worst team but it`s the one where the fans have nothing to look forward, both now and in the future, one team very familiar with such category is the Mariners, they last made the playoffs in 2001 all be it with the winningest team in baseball history, but ever since their fanbase has been stuck with season after season of mediocrity, and as we stand today, they are coming off a 78 win season which shows they have some talent, but ultimately lack a good supporting cast, now I'm not here to simply state the obvious, I want to present a solution to the Mariners problems.
Looking at their roster you`ll see a talented group that includes up and coming ace James Paxton, an aging nevertheless talented offense with Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger and others.
Clearly hitting wasn`t an issue as they ranked 5th overall in wRC+ at 102, ahead of CHC, WAS, BOS, ARI and COL , all playoff teams and as we stand they are set to have
Catcher, Zunino
Second Base, Cano
Third Base, Seager
Shortstop, Segura
Right Fielder, Haniger
DH, Cruz
While Zunino could use some work on his framing and Cano isn`t exactly a Gold Glover the overall defensive work of those two isn`t bad, now we have 3 spots left 1B, LF and CF, according to Baseball Reference Seattle has about 150 million on the books for this year all while accounting for arbitration raises, their payroll last year was around 190 which gives them roughly 40 million to spend, assuming there are no cutbacks , I propose that they sign Jon Jay a left-handed bat with no splits issues and solid Left Field work who is projected by MLBTradeRumors to receive around 7 mil on a 2 year deal and as sweet as it would be to plug in Carlos Santana at 1B there, I wouldn`t count on them throwing 45 over 3 on him, or anything along those lines so I would advise a run at Lucas Duda for about 6.5 on a 1 year deal which would be right along the lines of what he should be looking for and I see 2 solid platoon options both could be had, with the right offer, Sam Travis of the Red Sox and Rob Segedin, Travis played a little on the Sox this year and all be it on a small sample size hit lefties well and Rob has been great in the Dodgers AAA system the last 2 years but hasn`t really gotten an opportunity in the big leagues, I personally would go first for Segedin who would be the cheapest, at least i think so, due to the abundance of infield options the Dodgers have, that narrows it down to 1 spot, CF, now this is where I would go bold Seattle`s got an old roster and while this deal may not help them long term, they need to do something and if it doesn`t work out you tear it down and rebuild it from scratch if it works you improve your team and maybe make the playoffs, I would dangle Kyle Lewis as the headliner of a trade offer for Marcell Ozuna, i know the Marlins have said that they are only looking to trade Stanton, Prado and Gordon to free up money, but if they trade Giancarlo it`s a full rebuild and there`s no reason to keep Ozuna there, who is a valuable asset. plus I'm sure with the right offer he could be had and a deal headlined by Lewis and a couple of other top 10-15 prospects might be that, and if in the end, Miami decided to keep him or trade him somewhere else I would use Carlos Gomez as my backup plan, offer him a 2 year deal off around 23 with a vesting option for year 3. Obviously, if the Ozuna deal was completed he`d play in LF and move Jay to CF, in case that wasn`t implicit.
That would give me a lineup of
1, Segura 1, Segura
2, Cano 2, Cano
3, Ozuna 3, Ozuna
4, Seager 4, Cruz
7, Haniger 7, Seager
8, Zunino 8, Segedin
9, Jay 9, Jay
I believe that is the lineup of a playoff caliber team, but the real issue with the Mariners this year was the pitching staff, who needs help, assuming we get 25 to 30 starts out of Paxton next year which is a big assumption and that Mike Leake can deliver a full year with at least some resemblance of what he did in the second half, there`s another 3 spots to fill it and with about 20 million left, since Ozuna and Gomez are projected to earn about the same this year one through arbitration coming off a great year and the other one through Free Agency, so here`s what I would do, there are 3 pitchers in particular who are relatively cheap 2 coming off very disappointing year especially when in comparison to what they did the year before, but what they all have in common is above average FB% for their careers which for certain ballparks might be frightening but for the likes of Safeco Field it could very well be an advantage, they are Jeremy Hellickson, Miguel Gonzalez and Jason Vargas, I would pursue all 3 but ultimately sign just 2 considering I already have Paxton, Leake, and Hernandez with locked spots it`s obvious you need more than 5 to go through the season but you can`t just sign multiple guys and expect them to sit around until someone gets hurt and also I like Marc Gonzales as that sixth starter, that could be a long man in the pen as well, my preferred option would be Vargas at about 10 over 2, the second being a vesting option and then it depends on the price and demand of the other 2.
Now the bullpen who was good, not great 12th in WHIP, 14th in K-BB% and 13th in ERA at 4.08, there are already some interesting pieces that could form a core for a good bullpen those being Nick Vincent, Mark Rzepczynski(lefty specialist), David Phelps, Emilio Pagan, I`d like to see a full season out of Thyago Vieira, Erasmo Ramirez and Marco Gonzales could play the long man role, and obviously there`s the closer, Edwin Diaz, I really don`t think this bullpen needs much improving and with the other additions made I really don`t see any money left, we`re pushing 190 which is right about Seattle`s limit, I would start with this group see how they do and go from there.
It might not be genius, it might not work, but for teams in this situation you`ve got to make it work and if it doesn`t you tear it down and start from scratch again, it`s what the Padres did they were stuck as a 500ish team and they made a run for it, not a very good one with some big mistakes, but at least they did it, and history will tell you it didn`t work, but also didn`t doom them, they recognized the failure, tore it down and started all over again, now here we are a couple of years later, they have a young team with assets such as Will Myers, Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot to pair it with a loaded system, the San Diego Padres are a great precedent team for franchises that are stuck, you can go for it, you can make the big move and even if it doesn`t work, nothing is doomed.
Perennial contenders, those who for a variety of reasons are expected to contend this year and on a future window of generally 3 to 5 years, ex: LAD, NYY, HOU, BOS, CHC and others.
Stuck in the middle: these are franchises who as we stand today, don`t have enough major league talent to truly contend, nor enough minor league talent to be rebuilding with an eye in the future.
ex: SEA, BAL, TOR, KC(they are probably heading into rebuild mode, probably)
Full on rebuilders: these are franchises, who completely gave up on any hope of contending in the near future, and are managing their club with an eye on the long haul, ex: CHW, OAK, SD, CIN and others.
It`s no secret that the worst group to be in is the middle one, it might not be the worst team but it`s the one where the fans have nothing to look forward, both now and in the future, one team very familiar with such category is the Mariners, they last made the playoffs in 2001 all be it with the winningest team in baseball history, but ever since their fanbase has been stuck with season after season of mediocrity, and as we stand today, they are coming off a 78 win season which shows they have some talent, but ultimately lack a good supporting cast, now I'm not here to simply state the obvious, I want to present a solution to the Mariners problems.
Looking at their roster you`ll see a talented group that includes up and coming ace James Paxton, an aging nevertheless talented offense with Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger and others.
Clearly hitting wasn`t an issue as they ranked 5th overall in wRC+ at 102, ahead of CHC, WAS, BOS, ARI and COL , all playoff teams and as we stand they are set to have
Catcher, Zunino
Second Base, Cano
Third Base, Seager
Shortstop, Segura
Right Fielder, Haniger
DH, Cruz
While Zunino could use some work on his framing and Cano isn`t exactly a Gold Glover the overall defensive work of those two isn`t bad, now we have 3 spots left 1B, LF and CF, according to Baseball Reference Seattle has about 150 million on the books for this year all while accounting for arbitration raises, their payroll last year was around 190 which gives them roughly 40 million to spend, assuming there are no cutbacks , I propose that they sign Jon Jay a left-handed bat with no splits issues and solid Left Field work who is projected by MLBTradeRumors to receive around 7 mil on a 2 year deal and as sweet as it would be to plug in Carlos Santana at 1B there, I wouldn`t count on them throwing 45 over 3 on him, or anything along those lines so I would advise a run at Lucas Duda for about 6.5 on a 1 year deal which would be right along the lines of what he should be looking for and I see 2 solid platoon options both could be had, with the right offer, Sam Travis of the Red Sox and Rob Segedin, Travis played a little on the Sox this year and all be it on a small sample size hit lefties well and Rob has been great in the Dodgers AAA system the last 2 years but hasn`t really gotten an opportunity in the big leagues, I personally would go first for Segedin who would be the cheapest, at least i think so, due to the abundance of infield options the Dodgers have, that narrows it down to 1 spot, CF, now this is where I would go bold Seattle`s got an old roster and while this deal may not help them long term, they need to do something and if it doesn`t work out you tear it down and rebuild it from scratch if it works you improve your team and maybe make the playoffs, I would dangle Kyle Lewis as the headliner of a trade offer for Marcell Ozuna, i know the Marlins have said that they are only looking to trade Stanton, Prado and Gordon to free up money, but if they trade Giancarlo it`s a full rebuild and there`s no reason to keep Ozuna there, who is a valuable asset. plus I'm sure with the right offer he could be had and a deal headlined by Lewis and a couple of other top 10-15 prospects might be that, and if in the end, Miami decided to keep him or trade him somewhere else I would use Carlos Gomez as my backup plan, offer him a 2 year deal off around 23 with a vesting option for year 3. Obviously, if the Ozuna deal was completed he`d play in LF and move Jay to CF, in case that wasn`t implicit.
That would give me a lineup of
1, Segura 1, Segura
2, Cano 2, Cano
3, Ozuna 3, Ozuna
4, Seager 4, Cruz
5, Cruz 5, Haniger
6, Duda 6, Zunino7, Haniger 7, Seager
8, Zunino 8, Segedin
9, Jay 9, Jay
I believe that is the lineup of a playoff caliber team, but the real issue with the Mariners this year was the pitching staff, who needs help, assuming we get 25 to 30 starts out of Paxton next year which is a big assumption and that Mike Leake can deliver a full year with at least some resemblance of what he did in the second half, there`s another 3 spots to fill it and with about 20 million left, since Ozuna and Gomez are projected to earn about the same this year one through arbitration coming off a great year and the other one through Free Agency, so here`s what I would do, there are 3 pitchers in particular who are relatively cheap 2 coming off very disappointing year especially when in comparison to what they did the year before, but what they all have in common is above average FB% for their careers which for certain ballparks might be frightening but for the likes of Safeco Field it could very well be an advantage, they are Jeremy Hellickson, Miguel Gonzalez and Jason Vargas, I would pursue all 3 but ultimately sign just 2 considering I already have Paxton, Leake, and Hernandez with locked spots it`s obvious you need more than 5 to go through the season but you can`t just sign multiple guys and expect them to sit around until someone gets hurt and also I like Marc Gonzales as that sixth starter, that could be a long man in the pen as well, my preferred option would be Vargas at about 10 over 2, the second being a vesting option and then it depends on the price and demand of the other 2.
Now the bullpen who was good, not great 12th in WHIP, 14th in K-BB% and 13th in ERA at 4.08, there are already some interesting pieces that could form a core for a good bullpen those being Nick Vincent, Mark Rzepczynski(lefty specialist), David Phelps, Emilio Pagan, I`d like to see a full season out of Thyago Vieira, Erasmo Ramirez and Marco Gonzales could play the long man role, and obviously there`s the closer, Edwin Diaz, I really don`t think this bullpen needs much improving and with the other additions made I really don`t see any money left, we`re pushing 190 which is right about Seattle`s limit, I would start with this group see how they do and go from there.
It might not be genius, it might not work, but for teams in this situation you`ve got to make it work and if it doesn`t you tear it down and start from scratch again, it`s what the Padres did they were stuck as a 500ish team and they made a run for it, not a very good one with some big mistakes, but at least they did it, and history will tell you it didn`t work, but also didn`t doom them, they recognized the failure, tore it down and started all over again, now here we are a couple of years later, they have a young team with assets such as Will Myers, Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot to pair it with a loaded system, the San Diego Padres are a great precedent team for franchises that are stuck, you can go for it, you can make the big move and even if it doesn`t work, nothing is doomed.
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