I`m here to talk about 1 player in particular who`s going to make way more than he should, why he will and give you a nice cheaper could even argue the better alternative.
That player is Jay Bruce, now let me clarify I have nothing against Jay Bruce, he is a good hitter with nice pop and I would welcome him into my team, just not close to what he`s set to demand.
There are several reasons why a player gets overpaid, he can be a household name, could be recency bias, a ridiculous bidding war, all possibilities, the reality is, it happens all the time, with Bruce it seems to be a combination of things.
According to Jerry Crasnick, Jay is seeking a 5-year deal in the range of 80-90 Mil, that`s roughly 17 per year, and I'm willing to bet he gets something close to that, at least 75, for some context just last year Josh Reddick got 52 over 4 with a career wRC+ 3 percentage points worst than Bruce`s, 105 to 108, but with much better defense, Justin Turner the steal of last year`s FA class also signed a mere 64 over 4 deal, coming off 3 very good seasons that saw him pile 12.7 WAR, averaging a 140 wRC+, all while evolving tremendously on defense, while both of them had some injury risks, I would gladly take them over Bruce, but since they are signed already, it doesn`t really matter.
Now let me present some numbers that back up my theory and later I'll present an alternative to him in case your team is in need of a left-handed OF bat.
Over his 10 year career, Bruce has compiled a WAR total of 20.3, 1 quarter of that coming in his 2010 campaign when he hit for a career-high 124 wRC+, .353 OBP and 5.1 WAR, in all that`s less than the 23.0 WAR sum that his fellow FA, former teammate Carlos Santana has, and keep in mind did it on 300 fewer games and with no defensive value added, outside of this year, and Santana is projected to earn significantly less than Bruce, in the range of a 3 year 50 Mil contract, and that`s considering some teams will be willing to bet on his defensive evolution on 1B this year that saw him compile 10 DRS, and it`s not like the market values Corner Outfielders much better than First Basemen, but if your need is corner OF, I got another option for you later, moving on if you look closely at Jay`s career you`ll realize he is a platoon bat 90 wRC+ and 712 OPS against lefties, with completely umpredictable defensive performance, last had positive back to back DRS in 09-10, I'll admit he had some good seasons in 09 and 13 with 16 DRS a piece, but his llast 4 years are:
-6, 5, -11, 5, so you never know what you`re going to get and it`s very plausible that today, 30 years old Jay Bruce has seen his defensive value more than peaked, which leads me to this question, taking the Dodgers and Yankees aside no team last year surpassed the 200 million plateau in its payroll, so for any of these teams signing Bruce would be commiting almost 20% of its budget to him, an aging platoon bat with skacthy defensive numbers is not the way to go, I would recomend a 1 poossible 2 year deal to one Curtis Granderson, who despite his struggles down the strecth has shown he still has the ability to hit righties finishing the year with a 114 wRC, 110 overall in the first half, pair that up with quality defense in Right Field the last 3 years, 12, 2 and 6 DRS, also recomend Seth Smith another cheap option, very solid bat, has struggled defensively, slightly below average but will hold his own and can give you quality production, career 120 wRC+ and 821 OPS against righties, other solid buy low options include Alex Pressley, Carlos Gomez, and Carlos Gonzalez another one cheaper although not a buy low option is Logan Morrison who broke out this year and will be looking for a deal of around 40 Mil.
Feel free to comment, make suggestions for future topics, I'm open to ideas, agree, disagree, tell me I'm insane, whatever you feel like it, really appreciate anyone taking the time to read this.
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