Today I want to talk about the tricky situation of one particular team in the NL, that team is the Arizona Diamondbacks, they finished the year with 93 wins, making the playoffs for the first time since 2011, and while their season ended with a sweep in the NLDS by the hands of the LA Dodgers, most Arizona fans are hopeful of a brighter future.
Two offseasons ago Tony LaRussa and Dave Stewart made a lot of noise, with bold moves in a failed attempt to jumpstart its team into contention, among those moves were the Greinke signing where reportedly they came into the bidding war at the last moment and beat the Giants for the services of the former Dodger, the infamous Shelby Miller trade, that saw Arizona give up Ender Inciarte, Aaron Blair and number 1 pick of the Draft Dansby Swanson, quick note, I don`t think a move was ever more pivotal in the firing of a GM than that one, but here`s the interesting part, everybody remembers these two, but here goes a very interesting Trivia question for you, that really defines how badly the 2016 season went for the D-Backs.
Who among all starting pitchers that were at some point in the Arizona roster that offseason finished number 1 in WAR?
The correct answer is Jeremy Hellickson at 3.3, ahead of Greinke, Ray, Corbin, Miller and many others.
Jeremy at the time making 7 Million Dollars, as an FA to be, was dumped to PHI to free up some money that was later given to Greinke.
Also notable that was the offseason they acquired Jean Segura from Milwaukee, who went on to have a career year but don`t forget who they gave up, Chase Anderson who just had a breakout year and looks like a well above average starter.
So all in all the D-Backs really don`t have a good memory of that period in time, but the good news is that after a disastrous season they fired the front office leaders, got Mike Hazen in town and bounced back in great fashion, reversing their record from 69-93 to 93-69, with bounce-back seasons from Greinke and Corbin, breakout years from Ray, Walker, Godley and Bradley and the steady performances of Goldschmidt and Lamb, along with the timely acquisition of JD Martinez, all of which is great, but now we`re left to wonder can they sustain the sucess they had this year, with the Dodgers and Nats and their juggernauts, the Cubs, Giants Cards and Brewers all with resources and all of the intentions to improve their roster right now, the Rockies and Pirates with interesting teams that with some luck could make noise, can Arizona get back to the playoffs, I'm here to give you a scenario that sees them doing that, and no it doesn not involve JD Martinez.
First and foremost to all of you Arizona fans, they cannot bring back JD, nor they should, it`s so beyond consideration, you do get they are a low budget team, whose highest payroll ever was around 110, Greinke makes 34 by himself, I really don`t need to say anything else so let`s get back on track.
When it comes to pitching there`s not really that much to do, looking at ERA- their staff as a whole ranked second (80 ERA-) in all of baseball, behind only the historically great Indians, and they stand to bring every major piece back, Greinke, Godley, Ray, Corbin, and Waker, that`s a pretty formidable staff, Bradley, Delgado, Sherfy, and Chafin, it`s a really solid bullpen combo and that`s without counting Shelby Miller who`s projected to comeback midway through next year and could be extended on a relatively cheap contract given his injury and rather poor recent performance.
On the hitting side here`s what you get Goldy`s top-notch performance at 1B, Peralta, and Pollock get 600 AB at LF and CF, Lamb kills righties at 3B and after that 2B is a question mark since Drury seems to be stuck at average-ish play, SS you have Owings, Ahmed and Marte and no certainty, Tomas is a DH who can`t hit, career wRC+ below 100, Chris Herrmann took a major stepback this year and it`s impossible to understate how bad of a hitter Jeff Mathis, no ofense but career wRC+ of 50, so with a payroll projected at 116 as of right now you got plenty of places to improve, a very thin farm system and no whiggle room, budget wise, here`s what I propose.
Don`t bring back Owings, look for anyone who`ll take him and give you any sort of intriguing AAA reliever, he`s projected to make close to 4 Million, can`t hit, ok defensively not a better option than Marte or Ahmed, who both are better defenders, I propose to KC a deal sending Tomas plus a 5-10 prospect and another one in the 25-30 area for Ian Kennedy who`s projected to make around 50 Million over the next 3 years hoping he can bounce back in a different enviroment where he was previously sucessful at least fill in as a 5th starter, Tomas will earn around 46 Mil over that same strecth, this is all projecting that the Royals head into a rebuild given their amount of Free Agents and small budger, a chance to cash in on a prospect or two in a bad contract for bad contract deal, but wait that leaves me with an extra starter, it`s logical to assume you need more than 5 but starting the season with one of Godley, Corbin or Kennedy in the pen, no, I prefer to call LA and work a deal for Yasmany Grandal to be my everyday catcher, sending Patrick Corbin their way, that`s assuming LA has no restrictions towards increasing their number of lefty starters, but Walker is far more valuable, so unless they are willing to work something with Greinke which I'd be all ears to that considering any payroll relief now would be great, and the core of starters in place could very well sustain the loss of Greinke and his 34 Million Dollar salary, and lastly I'd go after Howie Kendrick to split time between 2B and corner OF, which`d cost me around 6 Mil, bringing the payroll to about 120-125, and leave me with the following team.
Versus Righties
1 CF, Pollock
2 RF, Peralta
3 1B, Goldschmidt
4 3B, Lamb
5 C, Grandal
6 LF, Kendrick
7 2B, Drury
8 SS, Marte
Versus Lefties
1 CF, Pollock
2 2B, Kendrick
3 1B, Goldschmidt
4 2B, Drury
5 C, Grandal
6 RF, Peralta
7 SS, Marte
8 3B, Lamb
SP
1, Greinke
2, Ray
3, Godley
4, Walker
5, Kennedy
Notes, I`d try a closer by committee in the first few months and then assess the results in the deadline, Bradley would be the relief ace, why, because there`s no money to sign Wade Davis and no prospect depth to trade for Herrera, also I'd give Lamb some At bats against lefties just too see if something clicks, as if it does his value goes up through the roof and there really is no better option
Forgive me for any writing mistakes, have some stuff to do, wanted to give you guys some context today, spell check tomorrow ok.
As always a pleasure let me know what you thought of it
Two offseasons ago Tony LaRussa and Dave Stewart made a lot of noise, with bold moves in a failed attempt to jumpstart its team into contention, among those moves were the Greinke signing where reportedly they came into the bidding war at the last moment and beat the Giants for the services of the former Dodger, the infamous Shelby Miller trade, that saw Arizona give up Ender Inciarte, Aaron Blair and number 1 pick of the Draft Dansby Swanson, quick note, I don`t think a move was ever more pivotal in the firing of a GM than that one, but here`s the interesting part, everybody remembers these two, but here goes a very interesting Trivia question for you, that really defines how badly the 2016 season went for the D-Backs.
Who among all starting pitchers that were at some point in the Arizona roster that offseason finished number 1 in WAR?
The correct answer is Jeremy Hellickson at 3.3, ahead of Greinke, Ray, Corbin, Miller and many others.
Jeremy at the time making 7 Million Dollars, as an FA to be, was dumped to PHI to free up some money that was later given to Greinke.
Also notable that was the offseason they acquired Jean Segura from Milwaukee, who went on to have a career year but don`t forget who they gave up, Chase Anderson who just had a breakout year and looks like a well above average starter.
So all in all the D-Backs really don`t have a good memory of that period in time, but the good news is that after a disastrous season they fired the front office leaders, got Mike Hazen in town and bounced back in great fashion, reversing their record from 69-93 to 93-69, with bounce-back seasons from Greinke and Corbin, breakout years from Ray, Walker, Godley and Bradley and the steady performances of Goldschmidt and Lamb, along with the timely acquisition of JD Martinez, all of which is great, but now we`re left to wonder can they sustain the sucess they had this year, with the Dodgers and Nats and their juggernauts, the Cubs, Giants Cards and Brewers all with resources and all of the intentions to improve their roster right now, the Rockies and Pirates with interesting teams that with some luck could make noise, can Arizona get back to the playoffs, I'm here to give you a scenario that sees them doing that, and no it doesn not involve JD Martinez.
First and foremost to all of you Arizona fans, they cannot bring back JD, nor they should, it`s so beyond consideration, you do get they are a low budget team, whose highest payroll ever was around 110, Greinke makes 34 by himself, I really don`t need to say anything else so let`s get back on track.
When it comes to pitching there`s not really that much to do, looking at ERA- their staff as a whole ranked second (80 ERA-) in all of baseball, behind only the historically great Indians, and they stand to bring every major piece back, Greinke, Godley, Ray, Corbin, and Waker, that`s a pretty formidable staff, Bradley, Delgado, Sherfy, and Chafin, it`s a really solid bullpen combo and that`s without counting Shelby Miller who`s projected to comeback midway through next year and could be extended on a relatively cheap contract given his injury and rather poor recent performance.
On the hitting side here`s what you get Goldy`s top-notch performance at 1B, Peralta, and Pollock get 600 AB at LF and CF, Lamb kills righties at 3B and after that 2B is a question mark since Drury seems to be stuck at average-ish play, SS you have Owings, Ahmed and Marte and no certainty, Tomas is a DH who can`t hit, career wRC+ below 100, Chris Herrmann took a major stepback this year and it`s impossible to understate how bad of a hitter Jeff Mathis, no ofense but career wRC+ of 50, so with a payroll projected at 116 as of right now you got plenty of places to improve, a very thin farm system and no whiggle room, budget wise, here`s what I propose.
Don`t bring back Owings, look for anyone who`ll take him and give you any sort of intriguing AAA reliever, he`s projected to make close to 4 Million, can`t hit, ok defensively not a better option than Marte or Ahmed, who both are better defenders, I propose to KC a deal sending Tomas plus a 5-10 prospect and another one in the 25-30 area for Ian Kennedy who`s projected to make around 50 Million over the next 3 years hoping he can bounce back in a different enviroment where he was previously sucessful at least fill in as a 5th starter, Tomas will earn around 46 Mil over that same strecth, this is all projecting that the Royals head into a rebuild given their amount of Free Agents and small budger, a chance to cash in on a prospect or two in a bad contract for bad contract deal, but wait that leaves me with an extra starter, it`s logical to assume you need more than 5 but starting the season with one of Godley, Corbin or Kennedy in the pen, no, I prefer to call LA and work a deal for Yasmany Grandal to be my everyday catcher, sending Patrick Corbin their way, that`s assuming LA has no restrictions towards increasing their number of lefty starters, but Walker is far more valuable, so unless they are willing to work something with Greinke which I'd be all ears to that considering any payroll relief now would be great, and the core of starters in place could very well sustain the loss of Greinke and his 34 Million Dollar salary, and lastly I'd go after Howie Kendrick to split time between 2B and corner OF, which`d cost me around 6 Mil, bringing the payroll to about 120-125, and leave me with the following team.
Versus Righties
1 CF, Pollock
2 RF, Peralta
3 1B, Goldschmidt
4 3B, Lamb
5 C, Grandal
6 LF, Kendrick
7 2B, Drury
8 SS, Marte
Versus Lefties
1 CF, Pollock
2 2B, Kendrick
3 1B, Goldschmidt
4 2B, Drury
5 C, Grandal
6 RF, Peralta
7 SS, Marte
8 3B, Lamb
SP
1, Greinke
2, Ray
3, Godley
4, Walker
5, Kennedy
Notes, I`d try a closer by committee in the first few months and then assess the results in the deadline, Bradley would be the relief ace, why, because there`s no money to sign Wade Davis and no prospect depth to trade for Herrera, also I'd give Lamb some At bats against lefties just too see if something clicks, as if it does his value goes up through the roof and there really is no better option
Forgive me for any writing mistakes, have some stuff to do, wanted to give you guys some context today, spell check tomorrow ok.
As always a pleasure let me know what you thought of it
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