In all business the most important thing in any sort of negotiation is Leverage, you always have to ask yourself what leverage do I have, for instance when a team wants a new stadium but doesn`t want to relocate it still seeks out to other cities, just to get leverage when negotiating, you can`t threaten to leave if you don`t have anywhere to go, the same goes for a free agent who can be dead set on where he wants to go and still entertain other offers just to get leverage with that one team, instead of just settling for whatever they offer him, there are several examples of this same concept.
I want to talk about a team that it`s in a tricky scenario and has very limited options, all because they don`t have leverage, that team is the Miami Marlins.
The Marlins who were just bought by the Jeter/Sherman group, have some moves to make, to the contrary of popular belief, they don`t have a decision to make, there`s no direction other than a rebuild, the only guys they can and/or should realistically keep are Yelich and Realmuto who are cheap and controllable long term, even Ozuna will make upwards of 10 Mil next year and it`s out the door in 2020.
According to Forbes, they lost around 70 Million in 2017 alone, their pitching staff is atrocious, overall they compiled a 5.9 WAR that`s the third worst in baseball and even the Reds and White Sox who finished worse have Rodon and Castillo, valuable promissing assets, Miami does not.
Their projected payroll for next year right now is at 131 Million, and that`s pushing its budget, for a team with very thin talent it`s completely unsustainable to pay nearly 300 Million over a decade to a player, you just cannot do it, especially when you suck, and lost insane amounts of money last year, anyone arguing for them to keep him is nuts. For all of these reasons along with the fact that Stanton has a no-trade clause, Miami has absolutely no Leverage on trade negotiations, everybody knows you have to trade him, which is why you`ll get close to nothing for him, at least not an appropriate value.
Think about this for a second, JD Martinez who resurged in 2014 and changed his career is now a 30-year-old outfielder whose entire value comes from his hitting, and has from that point on a 148 wRC+, and averaged 3.65 WAR per year, this guy will earn about 125 Mil this year if not more.
One Bryce Harper free agent to be next year, whose career wRC+ is 141 and has averaged 4.61 WAR per year will earn at least 400 Mil, he will be 26 by the way.
Now considering that today Stanton`s a career 144 wRC+ hitter and has averaged 4.26 WAR per year at 28 years of age, how much would he get on the open market, he`s right in between those 2, age-wise, and much closer to Harper when it comes to future performance and track record, the logic points to the truth that he`d get around 300 Mil if not more given the potential bidding wars, and he`d net his team the Marlins a pick right after the first round, could he get an opt-out in that deal? Absolutely.
So with that in mind why doesn`t a team with a big budget like the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, Angels and such just trades for him taking the whole contract and giving something equal in value to such pick or even less, because, they don`t have to, Miami has to trade him and if they can eat money nobody`s gonna pay for it, same reason why no one claimed him off waivers, if you can get him with Miami covering some of the contract, you`re not going to pay for the whole thing, So undoubtedly, in the end, he`ll get traded, Miami will pay some of the money and will get less than what he`s worth.
I want to talk about a team that it`s in a tricky scenario and has very limited options, all because they don`t have leverage, that team is the Miami Marlins.
The Marlins who were just bought by the Jeter/Sherman group, have some moves to make, to the contrary of popular belief, they don`t have a decision to make, there`s no direction other than a rebuild, the only guys they can and/or should realistically keep are Yelich and Realmuto who are cheap and controllable long term, even Ozuna will make upwards of 10 Mil next year and it`s out the door in 2020.
According to Forbes, they lost around 70 Million in 2017 alone, their pitching staff is atrocious, overall they compiled a 5.9 WAR that`s the third worst in baseball and even the Reds and White Sox who finished worse have Rodon and Castillo, valuable promissing assets, Miami does not.
Their projected payroll for next year right now is at 131 Million, and that`s pushing its budget, for a team with very thin talent it`s completely unsustainable to pay nearly 300 Million over a decade to a player, you just cannot do it, especially when you suck, and lost insane amounts of money last year, anyone arguing for them to keep him is nuts. For all of these reasons along with the fact that Stanton has a no-trade clause, Miami has absolutely no Leverage on trade negotiations, everybody knows you have to trade him, which is why you`ll get close to nothing for him, at least not an appropriate value.
Think about this for a second, JD Martinez who resurged in 2014 and changed his career is now a 30-year-old outfielder whose entire value comes from his hitting, and has from that point on a 148 wRC+, and averaged 3.65 WAR per year, this guy will earn about 125 Mil this year if not more.
One Bryce Harper free agent to be next year, whose career wRC+ is 141 and has averaged 4.61 WAR per year will earn at least 400 Mil, he will be 26 by the way.
Now considering that today Stanton`s a career 144 wRC+ hitter and has averaged 4.26 WAR per year at 28 years of age, how much would he get on the open market, he`s right in between those 2, age-wise, and much closer to Harper when it comes to future performance and track record, the logic points to the truth that he`d get around 300 Mil if not more given the potential bidding wars, and he`d net his team the Marlins a pick right after the first round, could he get an opt-out in that deal? Absolutely.
So with that in mind why doesn`t a team with a big budget like the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, Angels and such just trades for him taking the whole contract and giving something equal in value to such pick or even less, because, they don`t have to, Miami has to trade him and if they can eat money nobody`s gonna pay for it, same reason why no one claimed him off waivers, if you can get him with Miami covering some of the contract, you`re not going to pay for the whole thing, So undoubtedly, in the end, he`ll get traded, Miami will pay some of the money and will get less than what he`s worth.
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